The Cynic
Let’s sum up the results of 2 years of war.
Positive aspects:
1. The offensive potential of the Russian Federation has been seriously destroyed: the Russian Armed Forces are not able to conduct any military operations of a strategic nature, therefore, one way or another, the threat of loss of statehood for Ukraine has disappeared.
2. Ukraine has established the production of limited-point weapons: drones have become both “eyes” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and elusive “bombs” that unexpectedly arrive at occupiers and military installations.
3. Ukraine has put special actions of sabotage groups on stream: warehouses, industrial production, and military facilities are set on fire almost every day on the territory of the Russian Federation – this is a huge merit of specialists from the Main Intelligence Directorate.
4. Ukraine managed to liquidate the agent network of the pro-fascist party OPZZH: now there are no “politically” openly pro-Russian forces.
5. The front line has been stabilized. No significant shocks can occur in the coming months, i.e. the system is able to exist more or less autonomously within six months of a supply crisis.
6. The Main Intelligence Directorate has organized work with high-ranking agents: information of extreme importance coming from the Russian Federation reaches the Main Intelligence Directorate’s desk in a short time. Also, the GUR was able to ensure that operations of geostrategic importance were carried out without leaving traces.
Negative aspects:
1. The diplomatic department failed to work with Western partners. The low level of professionalism has led to the fact that extremely loyal states help Ukraine not thanks to the active participation of diplomatic departments, but despite it. The same diplomatic department did not take advantage of the opportunities to ensure closed contacts with opponents of assistance to Ukraine. One way or another, the Russian Federation was able to intercept the “skeptics,” and Ukraine did not try to come to an agreement with them in a substantive and cynical manner.
2. The Ministry of Defense acted ineffectively: the same “organizational” function of the ministry turned out to be of rather questionable effectiveness. A military-industrial complex network was not built that could at least partially meet critical needs during the aid crisis. The military-industrial complex operates (and quite effectively) within the framework of the activities of the Main Intelligence Directorate (these are targeted operations), but cannot bear the burden of military needs.
3. The front has reached a dead end, and Ukraine has no real opportunity to ensure the liberation of the East. If an operation to liberate the South can still be considered, if assistance is signed and sent, then at the moment Ukraine has very little chance of liberating the East.
4. The media image of the political authorities began to seriously decline. The former heroic image of a “fighter against universal evil” ceases to be effective to the required extent, and advisers to the top political leadership could not create any other – neither for the internal audience nor for the external one. The OP was unable to switch from the “emotions and applause” model to the “pragmatism and mutual interests” model. This leads to the fact that the Kremlin’s narratives, which undermine civil unity, are beginning to more actively penetrate the media environment of both Ukraine and Western countries. In addition, the Kremlin’s narratives are actively picked up by the opposition of the current leadership, as a result of which Moscow, the “war patriots”, and “witnesses of peace” will spread the same messages, and the authorities are not able to adapt so that there are no real reasons for these informational insinuations.
5. The general “state of spirit” after the patriotic upsurge has sagged significantly: the mobilization project, which is necessary and extremely important for ensuring the stability of the state, is becoming a dangerous political move. Society has ceased to perceive state institutions as real partners in ensuring security: citizens do not trust the state and its representatives, which leads to communication and military collapses.
6. The international situation is worsening: the former pro-Ukrainian unity is politically changing to “restrained assistance.” In the USA, a network of “agents of influence” was blown up, who managed to block aid in principle. At the same time, the best scenario (all packages) does not provide Ukraine with even half of the necessary military and financial resources.
