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The authors of the report claim that the Taliban, are preparing an invasion of Tajikistan. According to intelligence, the invasion is being prepared for the second half of April. The Taliban saw an opportunity to attack and are confident that Russia, having moved the main available forces and weapons in the Ukrainian direction, will not be able to intervene and provide worthy resistance.

The report explicitly states that the Taliban are skeptical about the military capabilities of Russia to resist them in Tajikistan. The Taliban are preparing and waiting for the weather to normalize in the passes, according to estimates, this is just the second half of April, and the offensive will begin.

Russia is the core of the CSTO and its “military power” was supposed to serve as an umbrella for the countries participating in the agreement. Putin has clearly demonstrated the problems of the “military power” of the Russian army and the inability of one of the strongest armies in the world, as it was believed before February 24 of this year, to solve combat missions.

The weakness of the missed Akela was seen by all interested parties and there is no doubt that they will use it. Nagorno-Karabakh is already beginning to reveal the whole tangle of problems and the desire of Azerbaijan and Turkey to resolve this situation in their favor, while the Russian Ministry of Defense only manages to reassure the parties, of course, only in words.

The Taliban are a big problem. If a real seizure of the territories of Tajikistan takes place, then this will mean the end of the CSTO and the end of even the imaginary claims of Russis to dominate the Central Asian region. But the most interesting thing in the report is the information that China is encouraging and pushing the Taliban to seize Tajik territories. We have repeatedly said that China will be the main beneficiary of the fall of Russia in the event of any military conflict initiated by Putin.

Putin has time to end the war in Ukraine before the end of April, and if a full-scale war continues, the consequences can be catastrophic and the threat of the cessation of the existence of Russia as a state in its current form will become real.

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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