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 Putin's trap for Iran to enter the war with Ukraine and Europe

Do not doubt that if for any reason the crisis of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine spreads and leads to narrow places, the case of drones will plunge Iran into crisis.

Dr. Seyed Ghaem Mousavi*  In the conflict of the first and second world wars, Iran declared “neutrality”. A policy that, according to its decision makers, could save the country from the flames of destructive wars.

In practice, none of the warring countries followed Iran’s policy and the country was occupied by foreigners. The excuses and reasons of the occupiers were nothing more than justifications, and the conditions of the war field demanded that the country be occupied, and they did so regardless of the neutral strategy. 

A policy that in practice did not have any benefits for the security and territorial integrity of the country. If they took the side of the possible winners of the war with a sharp sword and left the game in the middle, they would have been better able to secure the national interests of the country. It may be said that it is easy to talk about that time now, and the dust of events and conflicts of interest did not allow us to make decisions easily, but those who were in charge of the sources of affairs should have known a minimum of the possible course of international affairs, and this ignorance and Illusions had caused those calamities. 

Now, while the fragility of international competition and its crises are susceptible to the formation of another war in the form of previous international wars, it seems that Iran is again trying to stand in the middle of the game and does not have the power to choose between the sides. What his heart wants is contradictory to what he says and what is done in practice. 

The crisis in Ukraine and its surrounding issues, including the sale of Iranian drones to Russia, evokes the role of the German presence in Iran on the eve of World War II. As much as that issue caused a crisis, this issue can also cause a new problem for Iran to fall into the heart of the crisis. It was well known that the crisis in Ukraine would be erosive and long-term. Although Putin may have imagined that he would simply get his aggression somewhere, by turning it into a sword of Damocles and a means of privilege; He will take over a part of Ukraine and force his western rivals to strain against his extravagances. 

But the events did not go according to his wishes. America came well behind Ukraine, the Europeans prepared themselves for the hard winter, and most importantly; The Ukrainians made the battlefield bitter and dark against the Russian aggressors. The perspective of the crisis is still uncertain and it is hard to hope that it will end without some parts of its splintering being caught. This is apart from the potential for physical confrontation to be extended beyond the Russia-Ukraine duality. 

Putin’s threats from time to time to use nuclear capabilities against Ukraine and Europe-America’s failure to avoid dealing with it accordingly can ignite the flames of nuclear war. An issue that may not reach the executive stage in verbal interactions and in the framework of deterrence, but its specter is clearly looming and any miscalculation on the part of the potential parties can impose a devastating war on the world. It is very clear that the isolated Russia was struggling hard to have another country on its side in this unilateral aggression. 

The challenge of drones, despite its denial by the rationality-oriented part of the system, is the basis for the implementation of this goal. With the new sanctions of the European Union, Russia, while criticizing the technology of drones and not being satisfied with its practical applications, which aimed to formalize their purchase, practically called Iran to a crisis and was able to stabilize Iran’s challenges with the West, at the foot of the Islamic Republic. plunge into the quagmire of crisis. It both established the past sanctions and brought new sanctions. This is different from taking the capacities to avoid sanctions of the Islamic Republic. Like what happened in Syria, he shared part of the war expenses with Iran. 

Don’t hesitate, if for any reason the crisis of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spreads and cuts into narrow places, the case of drones; It will plunge Iran into a crisis, a crisis that with a little rationality we could use its opportunities or at least stay away from its flames and not side with Russia in vain

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence