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The Cynic

“Biden’s Historic Speech” is a semantic copy of Reagan’s speech. And this speech was directed not to Putin, and not to his people – this is a harbinger speech that clearly says one thing: “The war in Ukraine puts an end to the current history of Russia.”

In this regard, naturally, quite by accident, Azerbaijan unleashed the knot of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey will be included in this node (initially indirectly – by “pumping” Azerbaijan), then Russia, which does not have the opportunity to play on two fronts; Armenia, which uses the protectorate of the Russian Federation and Russian weapons, without which Azerbaijan, in a coalition with Turkey, has the opportunity to devour the Armenian army, simultaneously withdrawing it from the CSTO, thereby triggering the collapse of the “security system and collective impotence.” Iran will also enter the game, which, playing the interests of both sides, will implement its own party to increase influence in the region – it was not in vain that the formations blew up the Saudi oil “wall” at a time when Saudi Arabia planned to betray Washington and go over to the wing of the Beijing brother. So, Iran repeatedly emphasizes the desire to monopolize influence in the East, and the States agree with Maduro to bring down oil prices.

At the same time, questions arise for Abkhazia and Ossetia; Poland remembers Koenigsberg, and Japan – about the Kuriles. And Turkey’s plan of the Great Turan ends with eating half of Russia… And, of course, it needs to be implemented – “there is no way to look at the criminal government shamelessly governing the primordially Turkish territories.”

Not all processes will be launched simultaneously, but their focus is the same – the transformation of the Russian Federation into the RR (Russian Republic).

In addition, as we found out, a rebellion from the bottom turned out to be extremely unlikely, but a rebellion from the top seems to be a completely possible phenomenon. The latter has two options for the development of events. The first is short-term, the second is long-term.

1) Rebellion of the central elites. According to the scenario, the central oligarchic and power elites, vying for influence in the Kremlin, will implement a coup in order to preserve their own assets and take control of the main levers of government in the country.

Shoigu seemed to be shown, but Gerasimov and Patrushev?

2) Revolt of regional elites. This option is quite likely. RF is based on two basic models:
– rich subjects feed Moscow
– Moscow feeds poor subjects, bribing their loyalty.

The first as such do not need a center – they will be substantially richer on their own.

The second center will soon not be able to pay enough to maintain loyalty, so the elites, remembering old grievances, will repaint the badges of “Putin’s foot soldiers” into the badges of “national revival leaders”…

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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