National Critical Intelligence Estimate – Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Professor of Practice, UAS – Cybersecurity Randall K. Nichols, DTM, Kansas State University Polytechnic, Salina KS


  • Executive Summary
  • C-UAS Overview
  • Key Indicators
    • Political
    • US Legislation
    • Economic
    • Military
  • Summary
  • Open Source
  • References

Executive Summary

  • UAS technology is a rapidly growing and dynamic industry
  • US aerospace and privacy laws have been slow to address the developments in this industry
  • There is a domestic and military need for the ability to prevent UAS intrusion AND the ability to deter the offending system, pilot, and command signals

C-UAS Counter Reconnaissance

  • Counter-reconnaissance seeks to undermine the threat’s ability to conduct reconnaissance and surveillance efforts
  • UAS plays a significant role in reconnaissance for both threat and friendly forces;
  • Thus, all counter-reconnaissance plans must account for UAS


UAS Electronic Warfare Operations

  • Electronic Warfare (EW) efforts are integrated through targeting and will occur at all echelons as applicable and must be synchronized

NCIE Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) in the US

INSA Opens Nominations for 2017 Achievement Awards


Contact: Ryan Pretzer
(703) 224-4672

Nominations sought from the IC, private sector, and academia for national security professionals exhibiting great promise

Nominations due Monday, October 31, 2016; six recipients to be recognized in winter 2017 ceremony

ARLINGTON, VA (August 29, 2016) – Members of the intelligence and national security communities are encouraged to nominate their peers and partners from government, private industry, and academia for the 2017 Achievement Awards, the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA) has announced. The Achievement Awards recognize up-and-coming leaders and mentors serving or supporting the U.S. national security mission. The six awards and eligibility criteria are as follows:

  • Joan A. Dempsey Mentorship Award – Nominees would come from public, private and academic elements up to and including GS-15/0-6 and equivalent rank.  
  • Sidney D. Drell Academic Award – Nominees would include graduate students and untenured professors.
  • Richard J. Kerr Government Award – Nominees would be civilian government employees up to and including GS-13 and equivalent rank.
  • William O. Studeman Military Award – Nominees would be uniformed military personnel up to and including 0-3/E-6.
  • Edwin H. Land Industry Award – Nominees would include contractors and nongovernment employees with 8-10 years of non executive experience.
  • John W. Warner Homeland Security Award – Nominees would include law enforcement personnel, intelligence analysts and first responders from the federal government and state, local, tribal and territorial (SLTT) partners.

The Achievement Awards program has recognized employees from the Defense Intelligence Agency, Drug Enforcement Administration, FBI, National Nuclear Security Administration, National Security Agency, Northrop Grumman, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Office of Naval Intelligence, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Secret Service, and Vencore, among other organizations in recent years.

INSA Chairman Tish Long said, “INSA is very proud to again host the Achievement Awards. This program represents something we as a community must embrace: recognizing and investing in the amazing young professionals who will be responsible for protecting our nation in the future and are contributing to that mission today. I urge all leaders in our intelligence and national security communities to submit nominations on behalf of the rising stars in their organizations.”

The INSA Board of Directors established the Achievement Awards in 2010 to recognize the accomplishments of entry- and mid-level professionals and mentors working in intelligence and national security. The six awards are each named after a recipient of the William Oliver Baker Award.

Both online and printable versions of the nomination form are available at Instructions to submit nominees who would require a classified nomination are available by contacting INSA at

Nominations for all awards will be accepted through Friday, October 31, 2016. Recipients will be acknowledged at the 2017 Achievement Awards reception, more details about the reception will be released at a later date.


About INSA
The Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA) is the premier intelligence and national security organization that brings together the public, private and academic sectors to collaborate on the most challenging policy issues and solutions. As a nonprofit, nonpartisan, public-private organization, INSA’s ultimate goal is to promote and recognize the highest standards within the national security and intelligence communities. INSA has 160 corporate members and several hundred individual members who are leaders and senior executives throughout government, the private sector and academia.

Join us at the 2016 ISSA International Conference!

Survival Strategies in a Cyber World
November 2-3, 2016
Hyatt Regency Dallas
Dallas, TX, USA

Building a Mature Cyber Intelligence Program 11/2/2016, 4:00 pm – 4:45 pm, Cumberland I/J

Senior Many organizations claim to be creating intelligence for their corporate stakeholders. Most believe technology solutions provide the same. Tools, techniques, and protocols / procedures of adversaries is nothing more than data and information unless properly collected, produced, organized, analyzed and disseminated. This discussion covers how to establish the proper strategy using proven intelligence tradecraft methods. We will cover areas of vision, mission, goals and initiative. The discussion guides the attendees through the process of development methods of collection, outlines areas for producing intelligence using structured analytic techniques while extracting the required issues from leadership for focused delivery. Jeff Bardin: Chief Intelligence Officer, Treadstone 71. @treadstone71llc

Drone Attack! Swarm with Hazardous Waste Payload

Once again the Team Flying Dragon from Kansas State University has created a critical intelligence estimate, this time, looking at drone attacks. The team consists of John Boesen, Randy Mai, Carrie Padgette, TL Vincent Salerno with oversight and tutelage from Professor Randall K. Nichols. 210 slides of detailed information focused on hazardous waste in the US and the use of drones to cause harm. The full report is available upon request from Treadstone 71 at – Please provide your name, title, and corporate / university / government email address for access to the report. flydragons

The Agenda

  • Executive Summary
  • Targets: Defenseless Universities (soft targets)
  • Hazardous Material Handling: PPE, antidotes, transport, logistics
  • Substances Used: toxins, location, transport, doses
  • Scenario
  • Consequences: effects, aftermath
  • Recommended Actions
  • Conclusions

fluoroMotive of Terrorist Organization implementing drone attacks

  • Armed, capable of targeting individuals, autos, structures
  • Highly effective at targets, maximize targets
  • Lower cost, risk, no risk to user/pilot
  • Punish, deter, disrupt, degrade, dismantle, defeat
  • Influence mass audience
  • Exceptionally effective in undermining populations
  • Alternative means when other activity cannot be accomplished, as attacking US military

This presentation examines among other things ethical and legal dimensions of on-line behavior regarding cyber security and UAS. It is not intended to turn counterterrorism, information technology or forensics investigators professionals into lawyers. Many of the topics discussed will be concerned with the law and legal implications of certain behaviors.

Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, at no time during this presentation will legal advice be offered. Any student requiring legal advice should seek services of a lawyer authorized to practice in the appropriate jurisdiction.


This presentation is not about pushing the envelope or hacking, or trying out any of the UAS/UAV/Drone counter-terrorism approaches in our Cases or A/D scenarios in the field.

If you wish to see the complete presentation, contact Treadstone 71 at


Team Draco Volans

John Boesen  – Randy Mai – Vincent Salerno (TL)

For Approval: Professor Emeritus, Randall K. Nichols

PPTX here: National Critical Intelligence Estimate Small UAVS in NAS Rev 15D 12-6-2015 UAS Team RM VS JB RN team FINAL AQ to ISIS MIN size

PDF here: National Critical Intelligence Estimate Small UAVS in NAS Rev 15D 12-6-2015 UAS Team RM VS JB RN team FINAL AQ to ISIS MIN size

  • National Critical Intelligence Estimate (NCIE) was developed for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the United States
  • This NCIE is separated into three categories:
    • sUAS Market and Safety
    • Federal Air Administration Rules and Proposals on UAS
    • Cyber-Terrorism / Counter Cyber-Terrorism Implications of UAS
  • Each category has three issues and broken down by: Facts, Indicators, Judgments, and Recommendations with Cyber-Terrorism / Counter Cyber-Terrorism Implications of UAS including Cyber Security Architecture


National Critical Intelligence Estimate – North Korea – Utica College


●North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) is recognized as a totalitarian state
●It functions as a single-party military dictating “Juche” (self-reliant) republic
●Death of Kim Jong IL and his young son Kim Jong Un’s appointed as North Korea’s Supreme Leader, have developed many unknowns about the political climate
●As a centrally directed and least open economy that faces many chronic problems, impacts of recent changes pose several questions about the country’s future and stability
●North Korea’s nuclear, missile and other asymmetric military capabilities is a concern to the U.S. and presents challenges to regional security and stability
●Recent nuclear tests and overt threats by the new leader required a full analysis to determine North Korea’s intentions and capabilities

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) diagnostic technique, critical questions were analyzed against several hypothesis

Full PPT show is here:  NCIE North Korea

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