When, where, how, and how many vexing Russian leadership
They really have no idea and, therefore, have resorted to WWI style defense infrastructure. Their thinking is skewed, while fear and corruption continue to permeate their senior ranks. Failure means a long trip off a hotel balcony as Putler hides in his bunker making decisions under extreme duress, influenced by false information ( the emperor has no clothes) , using his paranoid personality enhanced with anti-cancer drugs and painkillers. Beautiful. Exudes confidence.
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff simulated scenarios for a counteroffensive in the Crimea in the autumn, and then in the battle of the Sea of Azov, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 40%.
Now the situation has changed, the enemy has dug in heavily and created several defense echelons, which will make lightning-fast breakthroughs more difficult, and the calculation of psychological operations may not justify hopes and the Russian army will not run.
Under such a scenario (negative for the Armed Forces of Ukraine), the Russian army must hold Melitoprl and Berdyansk for two weeks in order for the counteroffensive to take place, and we lose most of the heavy equipment and the best trained units without reaching the result.
Western media are leaking the date of the counteroffensive , which means it is no longer relevant.
We wrote about the fact that the Office of the President wanted to time the counteroffensive by May 9th , which is now being reported by the Western media. It is worth paying special attention to the fact that the weather does not yet allow the full use of the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and limited forces may not be enough for the Azov operation, because of this, the date that was worked out at Bankova was leaked in the media.
More confusion and chaos
Over the past month, a private information company in the Russian Federation has been conducting a series of psychological operations aimed at discrediting Ukraine and promoting the Kremlin’s narratives. This organization is followed by a trail of direct actions in the EU, as well as cognitive operations in the Western media and social media. It is noteworthy that the success of the launched information campaign of the Russian Federation can be judged by the scale of coverage of the media and social networks, involved experts and speakers around the world. The Disinformation Opposition Center conducts ongoing analysis and identifies enemy narratives that I use to form a negative image of Ukraine.
Involved experts:
▪️John Moran is a journalist and former foreign affairs editor at the Irish Press. Actively maintains a page on Twitter, gives interviews as an expert. YouTube channels. Promotes online narratives related to the commission of war crimes by Ukraine.
▪️Diana Shoshoacke is a Romanian non-factional senator, lawyer, founder of the SOS party . She became famous after a proposal in the Romanian Parliament to annex Ukrainian territories that once belonged to Romania.
▪️Eva Karen Bartlett is a Canadian independent journalist, blogger, activist and human rights activist. He travels around the territories not controlled by Kyiv, collecting evidence and testimonies about Ukrainian war crimes. The blogger shares the collected materials on her pages on Twitter and Telegram. She also often gives interviews to various worldwide YouTube channels.
▪️Gonzalo Lira is an American journalist, writer, vlogger and filmmaker of Chilean origin. He is active on Twitter and has his own YouTube channel. He gives interviews to various world media and arranges collaborations with other Western experts.
Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian journalist and geopolitical analyst. Collaborates with Asia Times and the Russian network RT. He is often invited as a geopolitical expert on various TV shows, YouTube channels and podcasts.
Promoted Narratives:
▪️Former Pentagon adviser D. McGregor on the Redacted YouTube channel claims that Ukraine is making many military mistakes, due to which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a critical situation and will not be able to hold out for long. So he predicts a loss due to the alleged incompetence of the Ukrainian authorities and the military.
▪️The American publication American Thinker states that “in the West, the understanding is slowly coming that Ukraine will not win.”
▪️Former US military S. Ritter claims that after the defeat in the “historic” battle for Bakhmut, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be defeated before summer or autumn.
▪️The American economist Steve Ganke on his Twitter page claims that Zelensky’s war with religion continues, arguing this by demanding that the monks of the UOC leave their canonical Kiev-Pechersk Lavra.
▪️Greek journalist Athanasios Avgerinos on his Twitter page claims that the Ukrainian authorities are blackmailing the largest monastic Slavic community and forcing them to join the autocephalous church, which is allegedly schismatic and unrecognized in the world.
▪️Dutch journalist Sonia van den Ende on her Twitter page condemns the “Kyiv regime” for the eviction of UOC priests from the historical shrine of Ukraine – the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra.
▪️The Chinese edition of Global Times claims: The West did not expect that Russia would be able to withstand the war against the entire NATO, and in recent days also advance in Bakhmut.
▪️The former commander of the Foreign Legion, Bruno Dari, in the French edition of Le Figaro Vox said that the supply of battle tanks would not allow Ukraine to defeat the Russian occupier.
▪️American politician Jeffrey Young writes on his Twitter page that the Ukrainian army is now almost defeated and is not capable of a big offensive.
What shall we do?
The West believes that the main role in the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be played by a psychological operation that will cause panic among the Russian troops.
‘Ukraine’s longest day’: First 24 hours of expected Ukrainian counter-offensive likely to be decisive – Foreign Policy
If the Ukrainian forces manage to cause paralysis in the Russian military leadership and panic among the Russian rank and file , the counter-offensive will be successful. Tactical surprise, battlefield leadership, and morale are likely to be critical in the first 24 hours of an attack.
“The first day of Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive could be the longest day for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
⚡️⚡️⚡️ #Инсайд
Our source in the OP said that Malyar’s statements about the start of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not true, local confrontations are constantly taking place along the entire front line. The only thing she pointed out correctly was the presence of several offensive plans, one of them would be chosen in a short time and in such a way that the enemy did not have time to prepare for it.
Where do we defend? Which scenario?
⚡️⚡️⚡️ #Инсайд
Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny continues to insist on a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Svatov direction, but the President’s Office demands that the main operation be organized in the South, and an additional strike on the eastern front. The Commander-in-Chief is sure that the underestimation of the Russian army and the hope for psychological operations are unjustified, the enemy is well prepared for our counteroffensive and has gathered large reserves in the Crimea / Rostov region. We do not have an advantage in the sky, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet taken the big cities by storm, if the battles for Melitopol / Berdyansk drag on for weeks, then our counteroffensive will bog down.
We keep pushing a failure rate to boost RU troop morale
Our experts and politicians are forbidden to discuss options for a negative scenario of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but how is it possible to plan the development of the state without taking into account risks? Bankovaya constantly receives scenarios for simulating various options for military operations, but all information remains classified as top secret, and even our Western partners do not receive this data. It turns out that the risk of failure of the counteroffensive exceeds 50%, and then just 7 more options for the development of the situation from the complete destruction of the most prepared units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to a protracted war for several years. It turns out that the risks of the failure of the counteroffensive are much higher than its success, and Zelensky knows this, which is why they are delaying and waiting for all Western assistance.
We know your psyops and cognitive warfare? (Or do we?)
The CPD continues to monitor the activity of the enemy’s psychological operations that a private information company can carry out: new experts are attracted and the “geography” of the media promoting the Kremlin’s narratives is expanding.
Experts:
▪️David Sachs is an American entrepreneur and investor. Shares pro-Russian views on the military conflict in Ukraine and shares them on social networks, as well as in interviews with TV channels. Sachs promotes the idea that NATO expansion provoked Russia, and also believes that Ukraine does not deserve indefinite support from the United States.
▪️Aaron Mate is a Canadian writer and journalist. Writes articles for The Grayzone news site. Also on his Twitter page, where he has at least 300,000 subscribers, he spreads information about “Nazi groups in Ukraine” and the NATO proxy war.
▪️Tuomas Malinen is a Finnish economist. Spreads pro-Russian rhetoric, in particular on his Twitter page. He repeatedly opposed the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
▪️Oun o Morhu is an Irish writer and journalist. He repeatedly declared the existence of fascism and Nazism in Ukraine, questioned the situation in Bucha, calling it a “false provocation” on the part of Ukraine.
▪️German blogger Kim Dotcom writes on his Twitter page: “The US government accuses North Korea of supplying Russia with artillery shells, while providing Ukraine with artillery shells from South Korea. US hypocrisy”
▪️Former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz, in an interview with Fox News , said: “In my opinion, Ukraine is losing the conflict by attrition. … the administration (Biden – ed.) will not even talk about a ceasefire and will not offer any peace plans. Her the task is to bombard Ukraine with weapons, in the hope that this will help her win, but this will not happen.”
▪️American analyst Brian Berletic on his Twitter page comments on Canada’s decision to allocate a package of military assistance to Ukraine to protect common values: “Given the Nazi problem of Ukraine, religious persecution, suppression of the native language … indeed, “common values” with Canada.”
▪️The German publication Bild writes: “The trouble for the Ukrainians is that after a seven-month siege, the Russians are slowly but surely winning the battle for Bakhmut… it seems only a matter of time before Bakhmut falls completely into their hands”
▪️Ex-employee of the British intelligence service MI6 Alistair Crook, in an interview with the Youtube channel Judging Freedom, said Zelensky is ready to transfer several western regions of the country to Poland in exchange for full-scale military assistance in the seizure of Crimea: “this is quite possible. Zelensky is in despair. He would like to expand the conflict for Poland to join as a member of NATO.
▪️Irish journalist John Moran wrote on his Twitter page: “Never again? Ukrainian neo-Nazis poison elderly parishioners near an Orthodox church, shouting: “Suitcase, station, Russia!”. We’ve seen this before. Near. Babi Yar is located on Stepan Bandera Avenue, where in 1941 the Nazis and Bandera killed 33,771 Jews.
▪️American analyst Brian Berletic wrote on his Telegaram channel: “The 2013 U.S. government-sponsored surveys of Crimea and Ukraine show that the nation was divided, many preferred or were related to Russia, and the Russian language was at least as common in the state, like Ukrainian”.
▪️American ex-military Scott Ritter, on the ThisDayPedia podcast on the YouTube channel of the same name, said: “Ukraine is going to launch a suicidal counteroffensive, which has not much chance of success.”
▪️American writer Lucas Gage writes on his Twitter page: “Ukraine is losing, but they identify it as a victory.”
▪️American journalists Clayton and Natalie Morris on YouTube channel Redacted comment on information from “leaked” secret US documents: “We know that Ukraine is the most corrupt state in Europe, it steals millions of dollars from you American taxpayers, which is now denied.”
