The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are conducting a massive transfer of military equipment to Crimea and its deployment near the borders with Ukraine.

Also, according to some reports, it is reported about the transfer of the Armed Forces of tactical missile systems “Tochka U”, artillery of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to the border with Crimea.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that it absolutely guarantees the security of Crimea – the military will not allow attacks on the peninsula.

The European command of the US Army has brought troops to the highest level of combat readiness due to the aggravation of the situation in Donbass and the concentration of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine.

The readiness of American troops on European bases has been moved from the level of “possible crisis” to the category of “potential inevitable crisis,” writes The New York Times.

The reason for the increase in the level of combat readiness was the aggravation in the Donbass with the resumption of fighting and the activation of the Russian army near the border of the Russian-Ukrainian border.  According to Pentagon estimates, Russia has deployed an additional 4,000 servicemen and military equipment to the regions bordering Ukraine.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine issued statements about “Russia’s plans to prepare military provocations” (according to Ukrainian intelligence).

GUR claims that:

1. Russia is completing the preparation of a set of measures, the purpose of which is to “induce our state to a military response to the hostile actions of the occupiers” in the Donbas.

2. It is planned to expand the Russian military presence on the territory of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” by introducing regular units of the RF armed forces, citing the need to protect Russian citizens in the self-proclaimed republics.

3. An attempt to move Russian troops deep into the territory of Ukraine is not ruled out.

4. Russian diplomatic missions abroad and the media were instructed to be ready to cover and explain to the world community information about the “aggressive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” and “peacekeeping” measures of the Russian Federation in response.

It is clear that any public statements by intelligence are always an element of information warfare.  But the abundance of statements on the topic “war is coming soon” is off the charts from all sides.

We have already written the alignment of forces in military affairs around Ukraine and in the Donbass.  The big war is not beneficial to anyone now.  But the impasse in which the negotiation process on Donbass entered and the even deeper impasse in which relations between Russia and the West are entering, alas, allow us to assume that the options may be very different.

And we can only hope that this series of mutual threats and accusations is a war of nerves and an increase in stakes, followed by an attempt to break the deadlock not by war, but at the negotiating table.

Ukraine continues to pull together echelons of military equipment to Donetsk and Luhansk regions

By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cognitive Warfare Training, Intelligence and Counterintelligence Tradecraft, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT,OPSEC, Darknet, Deepweb, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, customized training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, Disinformation detection, Analysis as a Service