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The Cynic

The dust has settled. We are summing up the results of Russia’s strike on the port in Odessa immediately after the signing of documents stating that the Kremlin will not strike at “grain” facilities for several months.

The Ministry of Genocide stated that the attack was on military targets. The version is untenable, since this location has never been chosen as a point of attack before.

Turkey version:
Russia said it had nothing to do with the attack on the port of Odessa, – the media, citing the Turkish Ministry of Defense

As we can see, there is already a contradiction.

Immediately after the explosion, Moscow calls Turkey and says that it was not involved in the attack on Odessa. Thus, Moscow is carrying out a stuffing that Ukraine fired at itself in order to carry out an international provocation, as a result of which it will be possible to attribute the food crisis to Moscow’s policy.

So, the Turkish line was built precisely from this model of further response: “it’s not us – it’s the Ukrainians themselves.”

Actually, this logic is confirmed by the FSB channel “Legitimny”, which writes the following:

Maybe it turns out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could themselves load the planes with aviation missiles and launch them into the Odessa port for a controlled provocation? If this is still confirmed, it will be interesting to observe the development of this “Odessa story”.

But then “Legitimate” writes another (and the opposite) version:

Yesterday they began to disperse the message that the grain case is supposedly insurance for the Odessa region from offensive and missile strikes. The entire elite in Odessa immediately exhaled, and the military began to think about how to use this “insurance” for their own purposes. Today, the Russians have destroyed this myth, hinting that if they suspect something and fix it, they will immediately strike at “military and related facilities.” They do not care now for the reaction of the West. In fact, they don’t even think about it now.

Watch Orban’s speech.

Orban believes a new strategy is needed: “focus on peace negotiations and drafting a good peace proposal… instead of winning the war.”

Orban said that Ukraine will never win a war against the Russian Federation, “because the Russian army has an asymmetric superiority.” “Because Russia wants security guarantees, this war can only be ended by peace talks between Russia and America”

This speech by Orban is the answer to the question of why Russia hit Odessa. This was neither an accident, nor an excess of performers, nor a point of no return to negotiations – it was an attempt to strengthen the negotiating position in order to see the head of Washington instead of Kyiv at the negotiating table in the future.

Orban’s position, in turn, clearly demonstrates the weakness of the Russian Federation in the military issue. The prime minister rather concretely voices the same position as Moscow’s obvious agents in Washington: “we must abandon the position of war in order to achieve peace at any cost.”

“Peace at any cost” is the concept of the weakness of the world order, which made a new war possible. The concept of “peace at any cost” was used by the West during Russia’s attack on Moldova (Transnistria), Chechnya, Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia), Ukraine (Crimea)…

The new war with Ukraine is the result of the weakness of the West in the context of the onset of consequences for the aggressor. The aggressor cannot be guaranteed peace on acceptable terms – the aggressor must be reduced to ashes so that a new attack becomes impossible.

In intelligence, there is one of the techniques for conducting the negotiation process, called a demonstrative refusal.

You sign a contract. And you instantly violate it, showing that the other side must make serious concessions if they want the contract to be actually executed. This technique is designated as “strengthening the internal dialogue position during negotiations, in which the interests of third parties exceed the interests of the guarantors.”

This means that Russia is in a weak position: it urgently needs a peace agreement, which means that it is time to cancel all political leaders who talk about peace. Peace will come only when justice prevails: when Russia completely loses the ability to threaten with weapons.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence