As republished by Iranian soutces
Following the outbreak of Corona in the World and Israel, the Institute for National Security Studies, in a brainstorming article, outlined 10 negative scenarios for Israel and made recommendations to the Israeli government as follows.
Most likely scenarios include:
1. Falling Regimes:
Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority and even Egypt may find it difficult to contain the crisis. While their citizens ‘expectations of the government are limited, a medical disaster or a lack of basic necessities can trigger protests, especially if the general public perceives deficiencies in their leaders’ treatment of other countries as a result of chaos and chaos. And the collapse of their governmental systems. The dissolution of friendly regimes with Israel may turn their territory into a source of threat. In the short term, especially if Israel is considered a relatively safe place, a wave of refugees can move to Israel.
2. Intensification of security situation in the Gaza Strip:
If Hamas finds that Israel has more restraint in its military response, the security situation (Hamas attacks on Israel) could be exacerbated. On the other hand, Hamas’ ability to run the Gaza Strip may be declining and groups such as the Islamic Jihad in Palestine may gain more power. The more Israel helps Hamas deal with coronary heart disease and alleviate Gaza distress, the less likely the escalation of the conflict.
3. A wave of [terrorism] in the West Bank:
Kidnapping or a wave of terrorist attacks in the West Bank may occur. If the Palestinian and Israeli authorities show less ability to carry out counterterrorism operations, they may be.
4. ISIS Recovery
Increased attacks or seizure of areas by ISIS, including in Sinai, may occur. The prolonged lack of political stability in Iraq and the regimes’ focus on tackling the disease may weaken the government in some areas and lead to less military pressure on IS.
5. US hasty exit from Syria and Iraq:
This may be due to the spread of the virus in these countries or due to the serious decline in Donald Trump’s popularity caused by his administration’s administration in the Corona crisis. The weaker Baghdad’s control over the country, the greater the pressure on US forces by pro-Iranian militias. US withdrawal from Iraq is likely to lead to withdrawal from Syria and the dissolution of the international coalition against ISIS and the capture of the Assad regime in eastern Syria.
6. Russia’s Opportunity to the detriment of the United States:
Moscow may be pushing for the purchase of pro-US Sunni states in exchange for a revival of the OPEC-Plus cartel to undermine its commitment to the United States by buying Russian weapons or nuclear reactors or investing in the Russian economy. Therefore, Russia may provide the countries of the region with military capabilities to alter the strategic balance – such as the S400 systems to Iran or Iraq – and persuade the Assad regime to agree with the Kurds, thereby US presence in eastern Syria. To weaken. The weakening of the US position and the strengthening of Syria’s position may have a negative impact on Israel’s freedom of action, thus counteracting Iran’s unfair regional activities and less support for Americans in the event of a conflict with Moscow.
7. Weakening of the Persian Gulf Kingdoms:
The low oil and gas prices and the Corona outbreak could undermine the financial power of the Persian Gulf monarchies and their internal stability. This scenario may undermine Israeli and Persian Gulf cooperation with Iran even after the crisis subsides.
Less likely scenarios:
In addition to the scenarios, there are 3 more negative scenarios that have not necessarily increased yet, but the expected high injuries may require continued attention:
1. Change of direction on the Iranian nuclear front:
Advances in Iran’s capabilities, which reduce the time spent building a nuclear bomb and soften US “maximum pressure” policy due to the Corona outbreak, may lead Iran to accumulate its nuclear assets, which are now lower. Ripe to increase the cost and strength of its trading against the United States. On the other hand, the Trump administration may use it as a winning card for talks with Iran or in exchange for humanitarian aid from Corona until the US presidential election. The weakening of the sanctions regime makes it difficult to renew pressure on Tehran in the wake of the epidemic.
2. Developing a detailed weapons project on the North Front or increasing dispersion between Israel and Iran in Syria:
Hezbollah and Iran may conclude that the intense pressure on Israeli security facilities and the reduction of manpower (as is the case in the entire public sector) provides an opportunity to advance the protected production lines in Syria and Lebanon to provide accurate missiles. Slow. On the other hand, Iran may succeed in duplicating the power of fire in Syria or Iraq and firing on Israel. In this way, Iran may try to show Israel the price of its struggle, similar to the increase in pro-Iranian militias against US forces in Iraq.
3. Widespread cyberattack, global or Israeli-focused:
Such an attack may lead to excessive losses, because in this quarantine and restriction between countries, the dependence of the global economy on telecommunications infrastructure for telework purposes has increased to an unprecedented extent. The sovereignty of nations depends more on technological systems than ever before. At the same time, the communications industry is facing increasing traffic needs and needs to be quickly adjusted to market changes and manpower constraints so that security mechanisms may be breached.
The Institute concludes that alongside these scenarios, new strategic areas in the region could be triggered by other developments, including the death of major leaders, possible changes in the dynamics of international power, military victory in the civil war in Libya, and fire. There will also be a ceasefire in Yemen or a dispute between Qatar and its neighbors in the Persian Gulf.
– Suggestions for Israel
By summing up these 10 scenarios, the Institute for National Security Studies of Israel has made recommendations to the Israeli government:
Israel is naturally primarily focused on medical and economic responses to the coronavirus crisis, and given the countries’ attention to the domestic consequences of the virus, any serious security incidents are currently limited. Even in Israel, security forces have reduced their day-to-day activities and diverted some resources to monitor the spread of the virus, obtain medical equipment and maintain public order.
Despite the urgency of dealing with the direct consequences of this epidemic, decision-makers in Israel should consider the possibility that challenging scenarios with the potential to create a high degree of damage, especially as mentioned above, may emerge. Therefore, security needs to think in such scenarios and be able to re-think resources in the future.
At least in some areas, early identification of negative developments may give Israel an opportunity to intervene to prevent harm to its interests. In others, preventive strategic communications can discourage regional leaders from actions that lead to immediate escalation or make relations more difficult in the future.
Important Points for the Islamic Republic of Iran in Studying Corona Negative Scenarios on Israeli Security
1. Israel is trying to reduce tensions and establish security in the occupied territories by arranging so-called humanitarian aid to Palestinians, including Hamas.
2. Strengthening and re-emerging of ISIS, as well as strengthening of armed terrorist groups due to the weakening of the Iraqi and Syrian military forces by Corona, may be one of the actions of the Zionist regime, as has seen some ISIL movements in Iraq in recent weeks.
3. Israel is particularly concerned about the US withdrawal from Iraq and Syria. For this reason, it is possible that the Zionist mercenaries would at this point attack US forces in Iraq and Syria and engage the US with the Syrian Shiites and the Syrian army and eventually Iran to prevent the US from leaving the region.
4. Another important point in this report is paragraph 7, which points to Israeli cooperation with Sheikhs and reactionary Persian Gulf regimes against Iran, and Israel is concerned about weakening such cooperation. This will be very important for the Islamic Republic.
5. The possible reduction of US sanctions on Iran has deeply worried Israel, calling it augmented by Iran and intends to pretend that any aid and reduction of sanctions would boost Iran’s nuclear program.
6. And lastly, the cyberattacks mentioned in the last paragraph of the report may be destructive measures against Iran in this regard. For example, cyberattacks on the World Health Organization in recent days that Israel calls Iran’s work.