China and Belarus began joint military maneuvers “Attack Falcon” at the Brestsky training ground near the borders of Ukraine and Poland.
According to the announced plan, the maneuvers will last until July 19 and offensive actions will be practiced: night landings, forcing water obstacles, conducting actions in an unfamiliar settlement. That is, it is not hidden that the combined Chinese-Belarusian units are preparing for offensive, not defensive actions.
We will remind that in September 2021, we published several OSINT monitoring of the Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad-2021”, which indicated the preparation of the Russian Federation for offensive operations against Ukraine [ 1 ], [ 2 ]. In 2015, a volunteer of the InformNapalm international community, Denys Ivashin (who has been a prisoner of the Belarusian regime of internal occupation since March 12, 2021), drew attention to the dangerous factors of the preparation of the Russian Air Force base on the territory of Belarus . In 2016, the creation of this bridgehead was put on hold, but on March 5, 2021, it resumed again, and a week after the start of this process, the KGB authorities of the Republic of Belarus captured Denys and brought absurd charges and threw him behind bars.
Now it is no longer the Russian Federation, but China is becoming the main player in Belarus, relegating the Russians to the background. Such alliances of dictatorial regimes challenge the entire system of international security. And unlike democratic countries, which take a long time to make decisions, dictatorial regimes act more quickly and can prepare another blitzkrieg, taking into account the experience of the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine. It can be both a Chinese blitzkrieg against Taiwan and the participation of the Belarusian army in aggression against Ukraine (in fact, Belarus entered into a military alliance with the Russian Federation and provided its territory for aggression in 2022). It is also possible that the Chinese, Belarusian and Russian armies are preparing to act together in the format of hybrid operations of the “little green men” model of 2014 against the Baltic states or Poland. And the slowness of decision-making by the North Atlantic Alliance with the fifth column in the rear (Orbán and Fico) can become critical factors that paralyze the entire system of collective security. For now, these are hypothetical threats, but they have never been so real, after Putin opened “Pandora’s box” and demonstrated the West’s impotence in countering nuclear blackmail, which ensures creeping concessions or critical limitations on the use of Western weapons against an aggressor.
