The Cynic

War with NATO

The “Polish incident”, in fact, turned out to be not the most pleasant in terms of the constructive stability of the alliance’s structures.

He demonstrated that NATO will try to avoid a harsh response, which is essentially true, since we are talking about nuclear war as a possibility of such an escalation.

However, it is important to understand Putin’s psychology here. Putin is afraid of nuclear war, and he knows that others do not want to allow it.

Before us is the character of a classic downtrodden and humiliated child with catastrophic complexes and psychological deviations. And this includes the classic image of a “school terrorist” – someone who comes to school with a gun and methodically shoots helpless classmates in the head.

The president of a nuclear country and the school terrorist have a surprising amount in common. But the main aspects fit in 2 directions:
– anger (at everyone around, because they “did not understand the genius”)
– fear (both due to personal insignificance, and due to natural cowardice).

When a terrorist smuggles a gun into a school, he appeals to power as a universal means of self-satisfaction. For “school terrorists” the basis of self-satisfaction is power over those who provoke anger and fear.

Power is a way of suppressing fear by direct pressure on the subjects that provoke fear.

A terrorist brings a gun to school based on 2 provisions:
– malice (hatred of the environment)
– fear (in this case – its compensation at the expense of power and subordination; in fact, “fear” is hidden behind a gun – an attack occurs on the obviously defenseless; on those who are not physically and mentally prepared for confrontation with a gun).

Doesn’t this remind you of anything?

In order to stop a terrorist, one cannot confirm one’s own readiness to “give in”, because in this case the terrorist continues to think in terms of the only concept of power and subordination that exists for him.

And if you are ready to compromise, then you are on the side of submission. Whether this is true or not in reality does not really matter, since the sick perception rejects rationalism.

Before the war, we denied the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion, based on the classical Western logic of rationalism. Putin (and his entourage) should have understood that the Kremlin is not in a position to win the war with Ukraine.

But it was necessary to proceed from a different position: the Kremlin felt the readiness of the parties to negotiate on Minsk-2, thereby, as it were, forming confidence that the West is in a position of inert subordination – and in many ways it is this painful mental state of the Russian leadership that contributes to failures at the front .

NATO plays chess without provoking the party, but international politics has never been chess, even though it is an accurate image. Geopolitics is poker when bluff and psychological stability decide.

We will play chess with the Chinese, we need to play poker with Russia, directly realizing that the Kremlin does not have any combination at all.

The hit on Poland (whoever carried it out) showed that NATO does not want to raise the stakes, but in general wants to fold the “controversial hand”, seeing a potential raise from the Kremlin.

This is a fundamentally erroneous decision that comes from rational logic, but not from the psychology of school terrorism, which Putin thinks.

Putin backs down whenever he sees an increase in rates. He is afraid of any confident game. He fears any disproportionate raise on the other side of the table.

Washington, trying to find out the facts of the incident, reduces the escalation on its part, thereby giving the Kremlin an impulse that the West is once again in a state of submission.

Putin stopped yelling about a “dirty nuclear bomb” when the Kremlin was told through the CIA that if a nuclear bomb of any origin were detonated in Ukraine, Russia would be subjected to a collective NATO strike.

Whether this strike is carried out or not – again – does not matter. For Putin, the threat is a transition to a position of power, which means the day before yesterday it was possible to put the world on the brink of the Third World War: it would not have happened, Putin would have filled brown suitcases to the brim and “passed back” …

By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cognitive Warfare Training, Intelligence and Counterintelligence Tradecraft, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT,OPSEC, Darknet, Deepweb, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, customized training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, Disinformation detection, Analysis as a Service