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The Cynic

On August 27, Moldova celebrates Independence Day. And, I would like to note, the independence of Moldova is under the greatest threat since the Kremlin’s illegal military invasion of Transnistria in order to “appease” the “language conflict”. Peacekeepers, as well as the largest military warehouse in Europe, are still in the territory of Transnistria under the control of the Russians.

After the pro-Western president Maia Sandu came to power, relations with the Kremlin sharply escalated: Chisinau (the capital) was hung up on Transnistria’s “historic debt” for gas, demanding to pay the “difference” for the gas that the Kremlin supplies to the artificial formation almost free of charge (prices are really close to zero, therefore, one of the largest crypto farms operates on the territory of Transnistria, which is facilitated by the zero cost of energy).

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Maia Sandu has maintained military neutrality (no weapons), being diplomatically on the side of Ukraine and trying to prevent military provocation from Pridnestrovie in the Odessa direction. Attempts to rock Transnistria have been recorded many times, but the leadership managed to “contain” the conflict.

In response to the pro-Western position before the war and the preservation of the pro-Western track at this stage, the Kremlin is beginning to rock the protest case in order to overthrow the current leadership.

The pro-Russian ex-president – Igor Dodon – promises to gather more than 200,000 Moldovan citizens to force the leadership to resign.

For “rocking” the strategy of “two hands” is used:
1) “Protest candidates” promise hunger, cold, poverty, a complete shutdown of gas in the autumn and winter, if Maya is not overthrown.
2) The Kremlin immediately implements “gas blackmail”, referring to the need to pay that same “historical debt”.

At the same time, the energy independence of the country before the arrival of Maya was never a dominant policy, so alternative suppliers remain a problematic case (there is no gas pipeline).

In addition, Moldova has no access to the sea (only to the Black Sea, and then “indirectly” through the port, which makes it practically impossible to use LNG).

Since the beginning of gas blackmail (even before the war), the price of gas has jumped several times, and in winter it can reach a tenfold value, which makes it impossible for citizens or industries to pay for it.

At the same time, Sandu, holding a “state of emergency” for several months, is implementing several closed energy agreements that will ensure Moldova’s access to the amount of gas necessary for winter.

This does not change the “protest rhetoric”, in which only one complaint is voiced against Sandu: she did not bow to the Kremlin.

The so-called opposition does not offer any more proposals. Just repent and lie down before Putin.

In turn, civil society is led to “gas theses”, as a result of which even pro-Western citizens of Moldova find themselves “on the other side”. It’s a question of political literacy.

It seems that in late autumn and winter, Moldova will face the second battle for independence: “velvet-intellectual”. If the leadership fails to correctly convey information through the press, and intelligence fails to identify and arrest the “network of influence”, then Moldova will face the most tragic turn in the history of independence – it will be attached to the Kremlin falling into the abyss. At the same time, over the period of Sandu Moldova managed to achieve significant results in the context of European integration – for the first time in the long time of the existence of “alliances for integration”, Moldova nevertheless decided on its geopolitical and strategic choice. And Russia is definitely not happy about this.

Who will be next in line for the Kremlin’s hysteria, which consists in attempts to carry out a coup d’état?

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence