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The Cynic

Received several questions about Iran’s behavior.
We are following the situation:

Russia plans to launch Iranian spy satellite from Baikonur to use against Ukraine – The Washington Post

Khayyam satellite will be launched on 9 August. The Russian Federation will use it for several months to monitor military targets in Ukraine. The satellite will be equipped with a high resolution camera. This will provide Tehran with “unprecedented opportunities”, in particular “almost continuous monitoring” of important sites in Israel and the Persian Gulf.

In essence, Iran is using Baikonur and Russia for the current operations in a traditional gambit activated by the Israeli army’s Operation Dawn.

Iran and Russia are on the side of terrorist forces, which can be seen not only in information support, but also in real military intelligence assistance.

Thus, the Iranian spy satellite will be used simultaneously on two fronts: it will be used for reconnaissance in the plane of Israeli and Ukrainian military facilities.

Such a “double entanglement” could give Russia the ability to pinpoint the movement of equipment, but Russia already uses the methods of military space intelligence, as a result of which the role of the “spy” will be insignificant. In addition, Russia does not have many high-precision weapons, as a result of which an understanding of a distant point cannot guarantee an “arrival” in a warehouse [all the more so, warehouses in Ukraine are seriously decentralized according to the American logistics model, which ensures the low effectiveness of each Russian missile attack: this is actually why the main target of missiles has long been exclusively civilian objects – the psychological effect of mass casualties is much greater than the effect of the destruction of some “obvious” half-empty warehouse.].

Iran has already handed over 46 drones to Russia.

The news about drones worries me much more. Iranian drones are really good. And it was the drones that Putin asked Beijing for at the initial stage of the war (a Chinese refusal followed).

Drones are highly effective in positional warfare, and are also a fairly effective means of repelling an offensive. UAVs are, of course, suitable for direct offensives, but they play a much smaller role than artillery and manpower.

It should also be taken into account that air defense is functioning on the territory of Ukraine, as a result of which the role of “drones” is also decreasing, nevertheless, it should be borne in mind that large deliveries of drones will be able to strengthen the military potential of the Russian Federation, although they will not lead to strategic changes at the front.

Now the war is at a stage where success is decided by an artillery duel and logistical gaps.

In this regard, Ukraine has a logistical advantage, while Russia has an artillery one. Nevertheless, the logistical problem does not allow the Russian Federation to effectively use its artillery potential, as a result of which military parity is felt on most fronts (except Donetsk), despite the superiority in numbers of the Russian side.

Drones can very limitedly solve the artillery problem if Ukraine has air defense forces.

So, neither the “spy satellite” nor the drones will be able to create conditions sufficient for cardinal changes on the battlefield.

However, Iranian drones need to be monitored. Batches of several hundred drones can plug up an artillery hole for a while, which is highly undesirable for the Ukrainian armed forces.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence