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Russia and others are trying to paint NATO as hysterical over the current status of Ukraine. With no invasion yet to occur, Western claims if an imminent a track are somehow, false, lacking credibility. This is just the opposite as with any intelligence estimate followed by a warning that leads to prevention.

Russia is trying to save face calling the current situation a close victory for Putin by pulling the rug from under the West. In fact, Putin lost this contest miserably. The Guardian wrote:  “Although Putin’s withdrawal from Ukraine’s borders was nothing more than a defeat, now the credibility of US intelligence agencies will be eroded if Russia chooses an option other than a military strike.” They could not be more wrong. What we see now is when intelligence works. The rug was pulled from Putin as his intentions were, and are still clear. He wants complete control over Ukraine. He intended to invade. He wanted to create divisions in NATO. Instead, he looks the fool on the global stage. NATO came together to fund, arm, and rapidly create unacceptable risk to Putin. Putin stands to lose much more should he proceed with his attack plans.

“Another angle for Putin is for Russian troops to simply stay on the border and set US-set dates and burn in succession. Moscow will be happy with this situation because once again the West has removed Russia’s biggest fear from the table. Support for Ukraine is apparently limited because it is not a NATO member.” 

NATO did not move 170k troops and the massive supply chain and financial drain this creates on Russian resources. He did nothing more than create:

– increases in arms deliveries for Ukraine

– enhanced dependence of Ukraine on NATO even if not a member

– the identification of Russian spying networks within Ukraine

– clarity for Ukrainian leadership of internal pockets of Russian support

– understanding for Zelensky of internal oligarch support and oligarch weakness

– awareness of Ukrainian civil response gaps and plans to update and improve preparations

– validation of methods that can work against the Russian disinformation apparatus

– unification of the Ukrainian people

– global distrust in Russian intentions

– a clear view of Russian capabilities and time requirements needed to launch an attack

– a clear view of Russian financial assets in Western countries and how Russia would attempt to secure those assets in the face of corresponding sanctions

– a treasure-trove of intelligence in Russian military units, their origins, numbers, and functions

– clarity on Russian infrastructure for war

– gap identification in Ukrainian cyber defenses

– continued distrust in Russian vaccines as massive numbers of soldiers spread Covid infections

– heightened awareness of Russia’s Desperation to be more than a gas pump

– disappointment from China in their newly minted pact to usurp lands 

– validation that Russia’s so called biggest fear is not Ukraine joining NATO, it is the spread of democratic freedom and what that means to his future of Russia. He still views the collapse of the Soviet Union as the castrophy of the century

– Ukrainian clarity of where the EU stands with respect to Russian aggression

– unification of Russian border states against Putin

– more internal unrest in Belarus

– an affirmation that Putin can only win through force, violence, assassinations, oppression, and repression

We can continue with more but we are sure the negative impact of Putins moves are clear. Confidence in his abilities will come under scrutiny in Russia. He put oligarch financial futures at risk of immense losses. He forced oligarchs to identify their resources. They will not forget this. Cracks in Putin’s heretofore seemingly invincible grasp of Russian leadership is apparent. Internal support for Putin in Russia is limited. Awareness that his methods of rule are not tolerable by most countries. Former and current military leadership openly expressed doubts at the wiseness of attacking Ukraine.

Russia is calling for NATO to leave Eastern Europe because the presence of NATO forces is a deterrent to its ambitions. That being a return to Russian territorial ownership. Fourteen new members joined NATO  since the Soviet collapse. They flocked to Western supported. Russian hysteria is clear. Their desperation demonstrates the fragility of Putin’s regime.


See the below for more on Russian disinformation and cognitive warfare.

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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