Natalia Kotlyar, Deputy Director for Business Development at the Vector Research Institute (under Rostec’s Ruselectronics), projects the market for signal jammers, radar stations, mobile protective measures on transport, and other counter-drone systems to reach 30 billion rubles by the end of the year. Her forecast emphasizes a higher demand for signal suppression tools than detection systems among enterprises, reflecting the urgency of neutralizing drone threats rather than merely identifying them.
Iosif Nurgaliev, CEO of the “Free Cooperation Network,” supports Kotlyar’s assessment but adds a broader perspective by considering the Russian drone protection market beyond physical hardware to include software and comprehensive system maintenance. When factoring in these elements, the potential market value could reach 100 billion rubles in 2024. This suggests not only a significant increase in capital investment but also a shift toward integrated, multi-layered drone defense solutions encompassing both technological deployment and ongoing upkeep.
Nikita Danilov, CEO of Fly Drone, offers an alternative outlook, estimating a one-time expenditure of 50-60 billion rubles on integrated systems (PAKs) combining hardware and software this year. He anticipates growth to 80-90 billion rubles next year, driven by advancements and higher adoption rates of combined drone defense systems. The dynamics reflect a “sword and shield” race, where comprehensive measures remain critical. Danilov points out that individual solutions are less likely to deliver effective protection, implying that layered strategies are crucial for countering increasingly sophisticated drone threats.
Boris Bokarev, a member of the NTI EnergyNet working group, stresses that the development of security measures often follows threat advancements. He advocates for comprehensive measures, including active spatial monitoring and the swift relay of attack information. He identifies sensors, communication infrastructure, and fiber optics as key components of effective counter-drone systems. This approach aligns with an emerging trend in drone defense, focusing not only on immediate threat neutralization but also on predictive capabilities that enhance real-time responsiveness.
The Russian counter-drone sector faces a rapidly evolving threat landscape, necessitating fast-paced innovation and scaling of both technology and strategy.
We See What Others Cannot
