The situation around the Red Sea began to heat up back in October. The Ansar Allah militia, also known as the Houthis, attacked Israel with cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles [1] . Following them came the turn of medium-range ballistic missiles launched in the same direction, and their transatmospheric interception by the Israeli Arrow missile defense system [2] . In mid-November, Houthi forces began attacking merchant ships associated with Israel or heading to Israel. There were several successful seizures, and at the end of November, missile and drone attacks began on ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which were repelled by US Navy ships deployed in the region. By mid-December, these attacks had become almost daily, including exploding unmanned boats.
The attacks have already begun to affect international maritime trade [3] : a number of large shipowners have suspended transit through the Red Sea, and their ships are now sailing around Africa. Large container carriers (Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, Evergreen Marine ), as well as suppliers and carriers of petroleum products and natural gas ( BP, Equinor, Frontline ) also announced a change in routes. It is estimated that companies that have changed routes control up to half of the global container shipping market. In oil transit, the volume is not yet so great, but prospects for the situation to worsen remain. Separately, we can mention the increase in insurance premiums for passage through the Red Sea with the increase in risk, and the increase in the cost of transportation on the route around Africa – up to a $1 million markup for each round trip flight between Asia and Northern Europe. The duration of the route between Taiwan and the Netherlands increased from 25.5 to 34 days, and the distance – from 10 to 13.5 thousand nautical miles.
Consultations on response measures were not long in coming [4] , and on December 18, 2023, the United States officially announced the formation of a naval force whose purpose would be to ensure freedom of navigation in the region as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian [5] . The United States decided to try to use its favorite tool against the Houthis: a multinational coalition “for a task.” In this case, the task is to form a group capable of protecting shipping in the Red Sea in the face of increasing attacks.
The operation will be carried out by the so-called Combined Maritime Forces ( CMF ) with headquarters in Bahrain, under the control of the headquarters of the 153rd Combined Task Force (CTF 153), created to solve problems in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden zone . Bahrain, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and France will take direct part in the operation. The level of participants varies significantly. The leader of the coalition is the maritime superpower represented by the United States; the owners of the largest NATO fleets are represented – the French, British, Italians, Spaniards; countries with fewer capabilities but quite strong at sea are Norway and the Netherlands, as well as the Seychelles and Bahrain, whose tasks in this case mainly come down to providing basing and deployment areas.
What is CTF 153 and what can this compound do [6] ? The headquarters of the unit was formed in April 2022, and consists of 15 officers from the CMF with a change of command on a rotational basis – so far, over the past year and a half, the headquarters has been controlled twice by American admirals, and once by Egyptian. Given the operating principles of such formations in the US Navy, such groups usually control forces assigned to them within the boundaries of their assigned operational area by a higher headquarters. Such a headquarters in this case is the headquarters of the naval forces of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces ( Naval Forces Central Command ), also known as the headquarters of the 5th Fleet [7] . Its manager, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, simultaneously leads the Joint Maritime Forces.
He controls all US Navy and Coast Guard forces in the region, as well as allied forces assigned to them within the CMF structure. But the line of command in this case is somewhat different: the Fifth Fleet has its own operational formations ( TF-50–59 ) [8] , managing available forces, from aircraft carrier and amphibious groups, to mine sweeping forces, special forces units, cyber warfare specialists and groups of drones. The “automatic” allocation of certain forces from these formations to the control of CTF 153 will not happen, and it is obvious that the United States and its partners will have to spend some more time on regulating procedures, strengthening the headquarters and accurately determining the composition of the relevant forces.
The list of forces is quite impressive [9] : in the Red Sea there is an amphibious group led by the universal landing ship Bataan (LHD-5) and the 26th Marine Corps Expeditionary Unit with a MTR group. The 2nd Carrier Strike Group, led by the aircraft carrier Dwight Eisenhower (CVN-69), operates in the Gulf of Aden. It currently houses the US Navy’s 3rd Carrier Airlift Wing, with 44 multi-role fighter aircraft, in addition to other fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. The group includes the guided-missile cruiser Philippine Sea (CG-58) and two destroyers of the 22nd Squadron, Gravely (DDG-107) and Mason (DDG-87). There are also other ships in the region from the US Navy, including the nuclear-powered missile submarine USS Florida with approximately 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles on board, the British Royal Navy, the French Navy and other allies, naval aviation forces, patrol forces, etc.
Naval strengths of various countries in the region
Source: @schizointel
The listing of countries, like fortune-telling of the ship’s composition, does not, however, provide an answer to the question: what to do with all this? It is possible to shoot down missiles flying from Yemen, but there is not much point in this – they will not end there, and neither the management of global carriers, nor the captains of merchant ships, nor insurers will have a desire to play this lottery.
An American-style “surgical” operation with missile/aircraft attack on Houthi targets? Even with the involvement of the US Navy and Air Force, it does not guarantee the achievement of its goals, and attacks will inevitably continue.
Ground operation? Another war in the Middle East in a hostile country and against the backdrop of Israel’s war against Hamas, which is disapproved by its neighbors, will clearly complicate the already difficult situation for the United States in the region.
While the Pentagon and Manama are looking for options, two questions become the most important for outside observers:
- Will the Houthis be able to successfully attack an American or allied warship? You can track the movement of merchant ships using many available tools. But to search and track a warship that cannot be unmasked by the automatic identification system transponder, more serious reconnaissance and target designation means are needed.
- Under the current conditions, how much will the priority of ensuring year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) increase? So far, the NSR infrastructure, primarily the Russian icebreaker group, does not fully support this task. The readiness of logistics companies that left Russia in 2022–2023 to use the services of the Northern Sea Route, a much safer route, but controlled by the state, with which Western countries have preferred to reduce relations to the freezing point, also remains questionable
