Military instructors from the “Wagner Group” were moved to Niger from Mali.

Military instructors from the “Wagner Group” were moved to Niger from Mali.

This, in fact, means that the parties are preparing to move into an open military confrontation within the next few days.

At the same time, the Wagner is still being used as a command proxy, but not a real combat force.

Most likely, as I suggested yesterday, Wagner will enter the African war as troops of the pro-Russian coalition after the ECOWAS troops begin to implement a limited military operation to eliminate the criminal junta.

The option of non-involvement of the West remains: the United States, as I said, is not yet planning any military operations in Niger, while France will try to limit itself to a military presence without going into a direct clash, although it hints at the consequences if the ultimatum is not implemented.

So, in Africa, the West and the Russian Federation will fight indirectly for influence in the region.

War can be avoided if ECOWAS abandons the “weekly ultimatum” and withdraws from the war game, which would be tantamount to political, moral and military surrender to pro-Western democratic regimes.

Therefore, there is not much choice.

As part of ECOWAS, there have already been 2 military coups involving Wagner, so the current tacit consent to a pro-Russian coup will end with another military coup within ECOWAS, and the cancellation of the ultimatum will be perceived as an invitation to action.

So the union, one way or another, by introducing an army, saves itself from the likely “spread of sledgehammer revolutions”, thereby changing the participation of the army for stability in the region and its own life, and it is precisely such an exchange that seems much more “worthwhile” than the exchange of an “army for a moral justice”.

The West, in turn, preserves both the zone of political influence and the resource zone of energy stability in Western Europe (especially France), and this is extremely important in the context of the inevitable clash with China.

Although technology will decide in this confrontation, voluntarily giving up strategic resources will be blasphemy: then it will be problematic to apply technology.