In Russia, the rebellion of the Wagner PMC units controlled by the businessman and field commander Yevgeny Prigozhin continues – they have already occupied Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh and are moving towards Moscow. The plane of President Vladimir Putin left the capital at the same time . At the same time, regional governors massively express support for Putin and declare their allegiance. Chert publishes a selection of comments by Russian political scientists and experts on Russian politics on how this crisis of power began and where it will eventually lead.
Ekaterina Shulman : It is interesting that the system reacts, on the one hand, very quickly – not only everyone was alarmed, but the CTO regime was announced in three regions, and the president made an appeal. On the other hand, not as the situation requires, but as we are used to: let’s talk and produce more paperwork. The president’s appeal, in my eyes, is very pitiful: let’s unite, we are brothers, we are doing the same thing. In the meantime, it seems that few people are interested in fighting Ukraine, it is much more interesting to deal with each other.
In general, what is happening clearly exposes the popular myth that the more autocracy and centralization, the more order. The association of autocracy and stability is the most false one ever.
(Interestingly, are we going to go through the entire textbook? We studied the monopoly on violence, went through the Bad governance chapter in detail, the topic of Limitations of autocratic decision-making was considered. Failed state/Fragile state will it or will it slip through?)
Kirill Rogov :
As is always the case, the creator of the Golem feels like it can be stopped, and so he makes it more and more convincing in order to more effectively scare others with the effigy. Until, in fact, it turns out that the Golem himself believed in himself …
Although the focus is now on the advancement of Wagner PMC units towards Moscow, Prigozhin’s main rebellion is unfolding in rhetorical space. The rebellion has already dealt a devastating blow to Putin’s war because it has been attacked with criticism not in the language of liberal opponents of the war, but in the language of its supporters…
Analogies with 1917, which have been glimmering for a long time, are now rising to their full height. Artificial patriotic excitement is extremely dangerous, because in the conditions of military failures it threatens with the complete collapse of the front and the military machine …
Ilya Matveev :
For many months in a row, Western correspondents asked me whether Prigozhin would take the Kremlin and whether he threatened Putin. I always answered that this is absurdity, Prigozhin was created by Putin himself literally from nothing – and in general, the Russian elite has been beaten off for 20+ years the ability to think of themselves outside of Putin. Prigozhin’s horizon is to become Minister of Defense instead of Shoigu and generally “get through” to the sun-faced. Nevertheless, now Prigozhin has gone on a rampage and 1) managed to draw some Wagner fighters into his adventure. Fantastic but true! 2) in response to his rebellion … no one wants and is not ready to shoot. Putin “gave orders to all departments,” but the security forces in Rostov are talking to Prigozhin, and not taking him under arrest, so the departments are not following orders? Those. Prigogine has already won. From what absurdity, what rubbish grows a new February 17th.
Nikolai Mitrokhin :
As for Russia, make the wildest predictions and you will always be right in the end. Abbas Galyamov : Until now, Prigogine fought as if with one hand. In fact, starting a military coup – that is, performing a political action – he defiantly declared non-political goals. Say, give me Shoigu and Gerasimov, I will punish them and return to the front. I’m sorry, but why go to the front? You yourself declared the war illegitimate yesterday. You yourself said that neither NATO nor Ukraine were going to attack either Russia or the Donbass. You yourself said that for 8 years, Putin’s oligarchs shamelessly robbed this very Donbass. So what is the point of this war? To capture more of this Donbass, so that they have something to rob further?
The internal illogicality of Prigogine’s position greatly weakens his chances. You can’t fight with one hand. It is impossible to implement a political project without setting political goals. You cannot declare a war illegitimate and at the same time declare your readiness to participate in it.
Tatiana Stanovaya :
The current situation is as follows. Putin took an unequivocal position to crush the rebellion. Push hard. There are at least two problems with this. First, the civilian population. They won’t smash civilian objects in Rostov. Secondly, how to keep the army. Now it is very difficult to assess who sympathizes with whom. I have no doubt that the military authorities are on the side of the authorities, and there can be no transitions to the other side. But down the hierarchy is a question. If an order is given to shoot to kill, how will the soldier behave? Therefore, for the time being, apparently, Prigozhin, as well as his fighters, will be persuaded to surrender. Not sure it will work. As a result, it may take a long time. They will try to physically isolate Prigozhin, cut him off and wait. But he is doomed.
Vladimir Pastukhov :
In his address, Putin slyly keeps silent about the fact that he is the main inspirer and organizer of this rebellion. He pulled Prigozhin to him, getting him from the very bottom, he approved an unprecedented experiment in creating a giant private army by a former criminal while maintaining criminal liability for mercenarism, he generously financed this army both from the budget and from the “common fund” (however, in Russia this has long been the same thing), he decided to plug a hole in the front with this private army at a critical moment, building the most epic pipeline in his career – to pump the dregs of society from the zone to the front – he went into the astral plane and did not interfere in several months a monstrous quarrel between Prigogine and the generals, adding fuel to the fire with their silence. Putin brewed, boiled and poured all this mess on himself. His position looks as ambiguous as Gorbachev’s behavior before Foros. He was waiting for something, but something went wrong and in the wrong place. He also called him his friend…
Alexander Baunov :
Mussolini’s march on Rome, which to many may seem irrelevant to Prigogine’s case, actually has to do with it. Mussolini’s march is remembered by many as a march of some fascists. In fact, it was a march of angry soldiers, who joined the ranks of the Nazis. Mussolini, after experimenting with socialism, found on the way to power the right words and the right group to turn to with them. This group consisted of hundreds of thousands of Italian men who returned from the front of the First World War. They did not return to prosperity, but to the hardships of everyday earnings, for which they had to compete with those who did not fight for any homeland.
Many of these returned men had the feeling that their homeland had not paid them extra. Moreover, the country, although it was in the camp of the victors, received not so much in the form of the fruits of victory, less than what was declared as the goals of the war. Therefore, it seemed that the motherland was not paid extra – they and she were deceived together. And the rear rats, generals, corrupt officials, fat rich people, corrupt politicians are to blame. Returning from the war, they felt themselves to be bearers of a special trench truth, which gives them the right to remake society, to establish justice, and to compensate for the damage to the deceived homeland and deceived themselves.
Mussolini correctly framed and nourished this feeling, speaking of “trenchment”, that the country should be run by those who have been under fire, know the trench truth and will not give in to those who deceived them and the country, profited or simply chilled in the rear. In contrast to the racial theories of future German allies, Italian fascism was based on a much simpler, instinctive, almost bestial anti-elitism, which the future leader was able to feel, formulate and use. He went to Rome against the old elite, ministers, oligarchs, intellectuals, corrupt officials, officials at the head of people who believed that they had earned the right to justice and power in the trenches in the name of the real greatness of the offended motherland. Rome then managed to take, although then the number of people in the trenches went into the millions.
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