The Cynic
A brief summary of the local offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (preservation of the “fog of war”) and the general situation:
1. Local offensive operations are gaining momentum: Ukraine is fortifying itself in strategic sectors of the front, simultaneously inflicting deep strikes on vulnerable points of the “five-step defense”. The defense was “impressive, but unbalanced”, which, according to sources, makes it ineffective, since “vulnerable zones allow for deep penetration, as a result of which adjacent directions and sections of the front begin to crumble, despite the fact that the “front line” seems to be protected “.
2. Russia was not ready for some lines of attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, Russia was not ready for “night sorties”, which, thanks to Western technology, have a unique effect in terms of disorienting the enemy. According to sources, Russia is “rather blind than sighted” in most sectors of the front at night.
3. Although the explosion of the hydroelectric power station blocked the “direct offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”, it made the tactics of “Ukraine’s remote strikes” quite effective. Taking into account the low accuracy of the RF systems, remote, accurate and unexpected strikes “from the line of the hydroelectric power station” turned the direction of attack into a “shooting gallery on Russian bones”: the washed-out defense and the “swamp problem” make it impossible to “direct attack” from the Kremlin hordes, and this is the only defensive tactic these troops are trained in. As a result, the Kremlin is simply losing resources in this direction, not having the slightest chance to control it in any way.
4. The “Shoigu Law on Volunteers” was signed under the groups (PMCs) of Kadyrov, but in the end led to even greater destabilization in the military environment of the Defense Ministry. Kadyrov, and so was and acted “in the orbit of the Moscow Region.” But Prigozhin, on whom the “law” was defiantly “expanded”, refused any cooperation with the Moscow Region, warning at the same time that without the “Wagnerites” the front would inevitably crumble, so Shoigu either needed to “give back” or prepare for significant territorial losses .
As the interlocutors say, Shoigu (and the Kremlin as a whole) cannot “disavow the initiative”, so Prigozhin again becomes an actor acting in parallel with the Moscow Region. As a result, the Kremlin not only did not solve the problem of PMCs, but also led to a situation where Prigozhin could continue to fight against the RF Armed Forces for “parallel domination” over power mechanisms. The Ministry of Defense will not be able to subdue Wagner, but as revenge for such “deep insults” Shoigu will begin lobbying for Prigozhin’s transfer to a parallel “import of weapons.” So, Prigozhin will either have to negotiate with the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation, or look for weapons on the free market. One way or another, the idea is circulating around the Moscow Region that “Prigozhin abandoned the Moscow Region near Bakhmut and disgraced him in front of Putin,” so “you need to put the upstart in his place, forcing him to deal with weapons himself.”
It seems that Shoigu, with stories about the losses “55 to 1” in favor of the Russians, prepared a “warm bath” for Putin, in order, under the guise of fake successes, independently invented on a drunken head, to solve the “behind-the-scenes-elitist issue” with Prigogine: “he’s the fuck for us your Prigogine is not needed.”
