Triggers of social discontent among Russians: even national projects may turn out to be a risk of the presidential campaign. This is stated in the report of political scientist Sergei Starovoitov and the Club of Regions.
The current state of Russian society is alarming: according to the results of the FOM poll for the winter of 2022-2023:
- only 30% of Russians believe that life in the country will get better in six months or a year
- 16% think that the situation will worsen,
- another 34% are sure that everything will remain the same, the rest found it difficult to answer.
Under these conditions, the task set by the administration of the President of the Russian Federation for the governors according to the 70/75 formula (70% turnout and 75% of the vote for the main candidate) will certainly not be able to be fulfilled by all regions. The reason may be several non-obvious, but extremely problematic areas:
- Violations in the implementation of national projects, which in most regions become generators of social discontent and create political risks. As follows from the report of the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation, for 10 months of 2022, 72,000 violations were detected in the implementation of national projects, 639 criminal cases were initiated on embezzlement of budget funds in the amount of more than 1 billion rubles.
- 2. Labor conflicts. In particular, the “new proletariat” – couriers and other “platform employed” workers – are becoming the driving force behind mass protests. The refusal of trade unions to play the role of arbitrator in labor disputes leads to an uncontrollable course of such conflicts, the latest of which occurred with the points of issue of goods of the popular Wildberries marketplace.
- 3. Employees are also accumulating irritation: in February 2023 alone, according to the Center for Monitoring and Analysis of Social and Labor Conflicts, 16 labor conflicts were recorded in the regions, and almost half of them (43%) were in the healthcare sector. The main reason (66%) is the low level of salaries and their delays.
- 4. Active digitalization. As noted in the report, the rapid development of digital services, in addition to the expected simplification of communication and service availability, has been fraught with database hacks, data leaks, technological failures and the spread of fraudulent schemes. This creates risks for the growth of discontent, since, according to citizens, by promoting digitalization, the state does not protect them from the actions of swindlers.
- 5. Programmable autoresponders and chatbots with multi-stage dialogues without the possibility of transferring to a live operator in case of a non-standard problem. A significant number of complaints about the work of public services are related to healthcare and education.
- 6. Insufficient pace of construction of schools, as well as the massive closure of small educational institutions, causes indignation of parents whose children are forced to study in overcrowded classrooms and in a “suspended” shift.
- 7. Health system. The construction of new hospitals and FAPs was not enough to solve the problem of access to primary care. At the same time, in 2022 alone, state medical institutions lost 9.7 thousand doctors, their significant shortage was noted in 22 regions.
- 8. The accident rate in the housing and communal services sector does not decrease from year to year, and tariffs are raised regularly. The residents of the country experienced the last such jump last winter, and the increase in the amounts in receipts amounted to 10-40% with a complete lack of pricing transparency, which provoked a wave of discontent.
- 9. Garbage reform. MSW landfills, waste processing plants and sorting yards often appear without extensive discussion with residents, which becomes a trigger for eco-protests. The fact that an environmental protest with certain technologies has a serious potential to develop into a civil one is a well-known fact. The story of Shies, which cost the position of the Arkhangelsk governor, has taught many. Nevertheless, the problem remains, and mass complaints about growing landfills and industrial emissions have a serious potential to turn into civil protest.
