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The Cynic

Results of 2022

Let’s sum up 5 significant results of the past year in the context of the war and the global political confrontation.

1) Russia’s war against Ukraine has reached an absolute dead end. Russia moved into the stage of dead defense in all directions, except for Bakhmut. In Bakhmut, Russia continues to unsuccessfully try to advance. This tendency of the “Bakhmut injection” will continue until the number of troops on the Russian side is replenished by “new forces”. At the same time, Russia will not be able to get out of the defense in any sector. Moscow needs mass mobilization, otherwise the January-March period will become the “coldest” period in the war. Ukraine will not force things without having enough resources for a counteroffensive, and Russia will not be able to break through in any direction. Now the stage of the “trench war” is underway, following the example of the First World War: after it, a revolution broke out in the Russian Empire following “everyone to the front – everything for the sake of victory.”

2) There has been a crisis of missile strikes in Russia. Attacks on military targets are ineffective, since the warehouses are dispersed and diversified. It is possible to carry out only strikes against infrastructure, but their effectiveness is becoming lower and lower each time, and the percentage of effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense is proportionally increasing. Moreover, stocks of long-range (!) missiles are really running out in Russia. So, Russia can release its 5000-6000 S-300s, but this is exclusively a front-line border area. Missiles that could threaten Ukraine’s energy security have run out. There was 1 very large or 2 medium salvos in 1-2 waves. On average, Russia can produce about 40 missiles per month of dubious quality. This is one and a half shelling in 2 months. With air defense supplies, critical infrastructure is safe. Iranian deliveries are still “on the table”, however, they are also limited to about 250 missiles, which is certainly a lot, but given the temporary smearing, the effect is insufficient for significant changes at the front.

3) Ukraine has become the center of regional security and one of the main subjects of world politics with a guarantee of “broad involvement” as a regional power in Eastern Europe at the end of the war. In fact, the “Ukrainian issue” will be the main one on the world stage for the next 2 years: and the issue of Ukrainian independence will be correlated with the issue of Western security and global stability. Thus, the center of the policy of Eastern Europe has shifted: Russia has ceased to be subjective in this matter, becoming a direct vassal of the Chinese Pilot Panda. The regional context has shifted from the “Russian-Asian” model to the European-American one. As a result, the context of the functioning of Eastern Europe is directly subordinate to Ukrainian and Western strategic thought.

4) China has reduced its strategic appetites in the face of Putin’s failed attack, industrial, human and epidemiological crisis. China has entered the most turbulent and unstable phase of its development, becoming a victim of Xi’s political game. Thus, the economic potential of China, on which the doctrine of its geopolitical influence is built, began to fall sharply, due to the frankly failed decisions of the current control “branch”. China has lost its chance for economic dominance through the transit of power into the hands of pro-Western loyalists, thereby launching the stage of “Chinese decline”.

5) The economic dominant of the world has changed. Simultaneously with the beginning of the decline of China, the European Union began its path to stagflation, the money and industrial and energy potential of which are intercepted by the United States of America, becoming the undisputed and uncontested leader of the world economy and energy. The splitting of Asian markets and the simultaneous “crisis of the European political model” allowed Washington to regain the US strategic dominance lost under the Trump administration in all industries and in all regions simultaneously.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence