In their words
From our group of experts. An academician sent a quoted text, but asked not to mention his name, since the authorship belongs to his friend. However, this is also my position. And I’ll tell you from myself – There is only one conclusion: urgently take Odessa. Otherwise, the “Screaming Eagles” (101st division of the US Airborne Forces, which are in Romania) and a French tank company plus 2 brigades of French paratroopers, Poles, Romanians, Moldovans and the Armed Forces themselves will pull up. Little time:
“Russia’s exit from the grain deal turned out to be the perfect trap into which Russia was driven by the US and Britain. The problem is that the UN, Turkey and Ukraine remained in the deal. They agreed on the movement of ships to Ukrainian ports without Russia and will diligently carry it out.
Russia is now either forced to start hostilities in the Black Sea, or recognize the insignificance of its factor in the grain deal. They decided to caputulate and go back to the deal
Whatever Russia does now, the options are “both worse.” There is no lesser of two evils. It will not work to save face: Russia will be exposed either as an aggressor, sinking grain ships under the auspices of the UN and colliding with Turkey, through which it now maintains the only pipeline to Europe, or it will admit military defeat in the Black Sea, and this threatens the status of Crimea. The Black Sea Fleet has already found itself under direct attacks, the intensity of which will only grow in any case. Ergo, the capitulation
Why did Russia fall into this trap? Yes, because of the combination of commercial and military logic in war and because Putin knee jerks at every defeat.
Because of this logic, Ukraine’s critical infrastructure is being targeted. Do not stop critical exports to the West. According to this logic, they are negotiating within the framework of different formats, in fact, behind the back of the warring army. They thought to combine trade and war with the West. But the West was not going to combine, it is at war. And trading for him is a weapon, not a parallel strategy.
It was impossible to enter into a grain deal. Negotiations are needed only as a result of victory. Since Russia is not winning, they cannot sincerely negotiate.
Damage to the enemy should be inflicted maximum and instantly. That alone makes him accommodating. Loss of time turns into a loss of initiative. And this makes the logic of your actions predictable, because it leaves no options for choice.
Is there an alternative to the grain defeat for Russia? No, alreadtly a done deal. After all, both war and avoidance of it are the most dangerous scenario for Russia. The Anglo-Saxons are pushing us towards it. Such a scenario could be an increase in strikes against ports and other Ukrainian infrastructure, which has been protected until now. There is no need to bring the Black Sea Fleet into battle yet. If you hit the ports, the grain carriers will leave themselves.
But Russia has begun a series of negotiations with the UN within the framework of the SKC. These are negotiations in the weakest position. If a stake is placed on them, a demonstrative defeat in the Black Sea will become a fact even if the Black Sea Fleet is preserved. The UN allows NATO to pull up any convoys to protect grain caravans. In fact, this is the result of an unblocked Odessa, when Russia decided to start the Istanbul Round of negotiations instead of blockade of Ukrainian ports.
Corporate interests are important for Russia, but in a war they are no more important than military ones. The West kept the export of fertilizers and grain through Odessa, but banned it through Russia. Complaining to the UN is a stupid position. PJSC Togliattiazot, of course, is an important company, but believing that the West will give us something to sell, and then buy something with this money, maintain markets and receive money for a war with it, is even more naive than believing Medvedchuk, who promised that he had already coughed up surrender with the governor of Kharkov, and therefore victory in the NWO was guaranteed in a week.
It’s time for Russia to go beyond the flags with which the Anglo-Saxons surrounded it. It is impossible to enter into new treaties before a turning point at the front. To seek negotiations is to beg for mercy. The West will certainly drive into a trap that it will close if the logic of “preserving the atmosphere for negotiations” is followed.
Putin is in a no win position. The best is for a ‘medical emergency’ forcing him into retirement yet current visible predecessors are hawks
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