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The Cynic

For some time I was busy with flights and meetings. I return with a rather pleasant optimism (more on that later), but for now we are analyzing Iran’s participation in the war – that is the only “gray spot” that makes the optimistic note a little less sweet.

So, Iran has intensified the supply of drones to Russia, while beating the West in the context of economic threats.

Think tanks believed that tough economic pressure would be enough to force Tehran into a low-key game.

This happened at the beginning of the stage, and the intelligence services recorded positive dynamics in relations between Iran and the Kremlin, but after one of the links in the balance of ultimatums was violated.

It seems that Iran is not cooperating with Russia with financial gain in mind. In essence, the economic game is built in such a way that Russia cannot and will not be able to provide Tehran with enough funds for economic growth.

Iran aspires to become a regional power, ie. he wants to strengthen his strategic influence in the eastern region.

This can be done either by economic superiority (China, Saudi Arabia, UAE) or military.

In the military context, Iran is interested in weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons, biological weapons, and so on. This is necessary in order to provide a system of ultimatum containment with a gradual transition to an expansionist-aggressive incarnation.

That is, the economic map of the West was interrupted by promises of a nuclear bomb. So cooperation on drones is probably based on a violation of the world order on the principle of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Hoping for Israel is hasty for the time being. Israel is entering a zone of political turbulence (elections), which is why the concept of partial non-intervention will not be significantly changed in the near future, despite the fact that one of the enemy sides is one of Israel’s strategic enemies – Iran.

In fact, in this position, Israel can conduct military operations at the “Iranian crossroads”, but cannot deliver the “dome” system to Kyiv.

This situation allows NATO to intervene in the war by carrying out a military operation against Iran’s nuclear lawlessness (following Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction” precedent), but this is not beneficial to Ukraine, since weapons will be sent to the Iranian path.

Thus, according to the calculation of risks, the West will supply Ukraine with air defense systems to protect against drones, but until the end of the war it will not get involved in a direct near-military confrontation with Iran. Thus, the defeat of the Russian Federation in the war will be ensured first, and then the game in the “eastern powder keg” will also be ensured.

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence