So, there is more and more confirmation of the model of “an attempt to beg for negotiations” on the part of the Russian Federation, and the main “allies” of Moscow – China and India – are active lobbyists of the negotiation process.
Additional guarantors of the negotiations are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc.
Due to the fact that all the lobbyists of the talks unexpectedly came to light after the meeting in the SCO (and Patrushev’s further “secret” visit to China), we can conclude that it was within the framework of the SCO (and Putin made excuses to India and China publicly) that the Kremlin was forced to short deadlines to end the war, because they considered the military adventure a failure, unviable and unpromising.
In this context, Putin has as many as 2 options for movement:
– raising the stakes in negotiations through a “nuclear defense position” on referendums. Thus, the nuclear threat, referendums and mobilization are instruments of diplomatic pressure on Ukraine and its allies to enter into the negotiation process, and the Russian Federation plans to start negotiations well above its head – at a level of escalation that it cannot afford. Actually, precisely because the parties must converge “somewhere in the middle”, the Kremlin draws its beginning of the path in the sky, so that it would be easier to jump off, trying to implement the principle of dividing “imaginary concessions into real (European) ones.”
– raising the stakes in order to implement the escalation as a tool for the enslavement of Ukraine (well, there – how it goes). The bottom line: after the referendums, Russia can actually put its nuclear weapons on full alert. And then there is the concept of intimidation from the first method, as well as the “related” concepts of blackmail in front of the negotiating table. And if the blackmail of nuclear weapons does not work, only it will never give its “terrible effect” again.
After a nuclear strike, there is a worldwide escalation. The chance of this happening is low.
Nuclear weapons may be brought by Russia as a “final gesture”, but they probably won’t get there.
Putin will probably try to “break the deal”, blame the West and manipulate the East – then he will show himself as an “innovative titan”
But the nuance is that the Russian Federation has no allies left, which means there are no resources for mobilization (food, water, clothing, weapons, ammunition and shells).
The military path was left alone – into the abyss. Putin can “stop” the war only with local nuclear weapons, which only he will use – with one foot in the grave.
So the threats of nuclear weapons are not about the territory of Ukraine and not about sovereignty, but exclusively about the factor of personal guarantees of Putin’s life. So, Putin is very unlikely to hit nuclear weapons if no one is going to quarter him himself.
Putin does not care about the integrity of the Russian Federation. He seals the negotiating tracks with blood, but Putin will not be able to complete the escalation, because after the “steam blow” a new wave of disappointments will be too palpable.
Putin does not have a winning scenario in his hands and there is no possibility of its formation after all the necessary “cards” of the centrist lobby have been opened.
Military way – defeat
Through a referendum to the threat of a nuclear strike – the path to defeat through the “shame of the ultimatum lover.”
Well, the third option is through a nuclear strike.
But a nuclear explosion “limits the zone,” making it impossible for either Russia or Ukraine to capture it. This means that it is impossible to strategically win the war with a volley of nuclear weapons.
Putin has no outcomes from the current war. We are probably also saying goodbye to the statehood of the Russian Federation.
Oh yes, this is how Putin can brag to the members of the SCO who have defiled his physiognomy. But Putin will not be able to win, and therefore the protrusion of greatness in front of China will not have a reliable substrate.