The Cynic

After the “Taiwan outbreak” faded a little, reports began to come in again that Nancy was flying to Taiwan.

In parallel, China and the United States are implementing an interesting distribution of threats.

Washington maintains a low profile, demanding symmetrical behavior from Beijing: the White House claims that it does not recognize the independence of Taiwan and adheres to the “one China” doctrine, but considers that Taiwan is free to visit.

Beijing, on the contrary, artificially winds up internal military-patriotic hysteria. Tanks were seen even on the beaches, although the speed of movement along the beaches is significantly lower than the speed of movement along the highways, however, the key task of the PRC leadership is to demonstrate to the population a high degree of mobilization in connection with the “Nancy case”.

In parallel, there are reports that new weapons systems have been put on alert; that fighter jets will be sent into the air (both from China and from Taiwan to escort the Nancy).

The state press is also heating up, on the verge of reports that the Chinese army is to shoot down Nancy’s plane.

The Foreign Ministry is limited to a notification of “serious consequences.”

Now let’s take a closer look at the situation:
1) The White House and the State Department have told China that they do not support Nancy’s idea to visit Taiwan, but the executive and legislative branches of government cannot pressure each other: Beijing has received notice that Nancy is acting independently.

Perhaps on this “independent game” a “bridge of communication” will be built in case of failure of this card game.

2) The chance of shooting down an aircraft is close to zero, according to Western analysts. The reason is that such a move would be considered a declaration of war – a new World War between the 2 major powers. Such an outcome does not suit both sides, but Washington is “squeezing” the authoritative plane of Beijing, in fact forcing it to react harshly so as not to lower its reputation.

3) Washington’s reputation is hitting Xi personally, thereby confirming the rumors that in November he may lose his post.

Xi himself faces the choice of starting a devastating World War III, starting a senseless war with Taiwan, and “diplomatic swallowing” with subsequent threats to sever relations between China and the United States.

The US also has an election in November, and the case of Taiwan will not matter if the triple play fails. But if the Taiwan trick succeeds, it can be presented as a geopolitical victory.

4) A visit to Taiwan for the United States does not carry any value from the point of view of real agreements: it does not bring a single “real” leverage, but it forms intangible tactical advantages in the November elections (if you can call it that), but in the PRC, and not in USA.

The United States in real terms does not win anything, in many ways it loses economically. Moreover, this trip will not deepen or expand the relationship with Taiwan in deeper essences.

5) Nancy realizes her political ambitions by entering the “game of the first persons” and becoming an independent detonator of the information field. The White House deliberately plays a cautious enough game to have Nancy directly under the spotlight as a political trigger for an international outburst.

6) The White House is sure that the Third World War will not happen, and China will have to “move”, thereby losing the reputational game. At the same time, Washington is interested in partnering with Beijing while the United States is busy with the “Russian problem.” And now this economic deal can fly apart (which is bad for the US) – China can become a prop for the Kremlin, effectively canceling out the previous relations with Washington after Nancy’s provocative trip to Taiwan.

It appears that the White House has calculated the risks and is now convinced that the Russian-leaning leadership in China can step aside in November, and a reputational blow to Xi through Nancy will help pro-Western lobbies within the Communist Party come to power. And those already have friendly contacts with the United States.

Bets are made. The risks are quite high.

By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cognitive Warfare Training, Intelligence and Counterintelligence Tradecraft, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT,OPSEC, Darknet, Deepweb, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, customized training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, Disinformation detection, Analysis as a Service