The Cynic

You can often see the accusations from Washington that it did not provide enough weapons, and that the Russian amount of artillery was tenfold superior.

Now let’s think strategically.

What should Washington do?

Using the peculiarities of the infrastructure, taking into account the capabilities of the West, the need to transport equipment in a roundabout way (so that Moscow could not “break” the delivery and blow up the warehouse), the obligation to train the military (the Ukrainians used Western equipment little before – experience is needed), the United States could reduce the advantage of the Russian Federation to a maximum up to seven times.

What would this change in the end, except for large investments by the West in the war and a big disagreement within Western governments: “so many resources were sucked in, but it still didn’t work out.”

Then the West decided to use the “meat grinder” technology, creating traps for Russia in which it would lose soldiers and weapons.

So it was possible to constantly bite off the military potential of the Russian Federation with “small forces” (we talked about this for a long time – even when Russia launched the “Locust” strategy).

Then it is necessary to bring the Russian Federation to a state in which further expansion is impossible.

To do this, they had to “surrender territories”, along the way placing mousetraps into which the Kremlin came across.

And so, from loop to loop, Russia came out weakened to the borders of the Lugansk Region.

Now she has the opportunity for some attempts to ingest several localities. But this is already literally “with the last effort”, after which there will be no real opportunity for an offensive in this direction.

That is, Washington proposed to “grind” the Russian potential.

When Russia entered the “defense line”, where advances are likely, but in small numbers, Washington helped Ukraine begin a massive bombardment of warehouses, which makes the only possibility for the Russian Federation to “shoot from the wheels.”

In fact, if conditional “cartridges” have been delivered, then Russia can shoot.
We didn’t have time – there was nothing to shoot.

Accordingly, such tactics make it possible to significantly reduce the real military meaning of this tenfold superiority of the Russian Federation in artillery.

In addition, “from the wheels” it is impossible to shoot at the same pace.

Moreover, it is impossible to attack “from the wheels”, since there is no reliable rear to saturate the offensive.

Yes, and it is impossible to defend against the offensive.

The only thing that can be organized “from the wheels” is “trench wars” with a sluggish front.

But during trench wars, the military potential of Ukraine will grow due to the activation and long-term work of the Western military-industrial complex. Time is on the side of Ukraine.

At the same time, the Russian military-industrial complex does not have the technology to replenish its reserves.

So it turns out in the end that every new day of the “trench war” strengthens Ukraine and weakens Russia.

Russia’s chance is to move forward quickly by using all the weapons that are in stock, including the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s.

Russia can only “throw meat” and then at some point it will stop, not being able to move forward further.

Then Ukraine will start recapturing territories.

Actually, Russia has only one chance to win – this is the termination of Western assistance.

So it turns out that the West, with its “small deliveries”, did not allow Ukraine to “kill” qualified soldiers, simultaneously burying a huge amount of Western artillery.

Ukraine cannot win either by blood or iron. She has fewer of them. Therefore, the bet is made on strategy and mind.

And so the mind decided: it is impossible to fight with a tenfold superiority of the enemy “on the forehead” – it is necessary to suck the strength out of the Russian advantage, losing the minimum amount of human and technical resources.

The West has taken probably the only decision that allows Ukraine to return to the war “on horseback” after a tactical retreat.

It turned out the following:
– minimum losses in manpower
– minimum losses in equipment

The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Western advisers squeezed the maximum out of the unfavorable situation at the front.

A strategic turning point is visible on the horizon.

By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cognitive Warfare Training, Intelligence and Counterintelligence Tradecraft, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT,OPSEC, Darknet, Deepweb, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, customized training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, Disinformation detection, Analysis as a Service