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The Cynic

We are waiting for the lend-lease war 2

The next night news about accurate hits on warehouses is opening the Russian Pandora’s Box more and more.

Ukraine continues to prepare for the offensive, turning Russian warehouses into powder.

At the same time, it is worth noting that Russia advanced solely due to the advantage in manpower and weapons.

But if all warehouses are gradually annihilated, then Russia will be forced to act with the tactics of a “frontal attack”, having no infrastructure behind it.

We have already observed such hostilities – this is the first phase of the war, when 64 km of tanks got stuck and then were completely defeated by the Ukrainian army. And all this splendor ended in a shameful flight as another “sign of a dead moth.”

History repeats itself.

Russia enters the third phase with the same tactics, as it gradually loses its only advantage – the number of weapons.

This, by the way, is one of the reasons why the West supplies weapons “by the teaspoon.” Washington provides the weapons that are capable of inflicting maximum losses at a given time at minimal cost.

HIMARS paid off handsomely, effectively turning Russia’s overwhelming advantage into a pile of ashes and charred corpses.

Now Moscow is trying to suspend or temporarily freeze the supply of military equipment, trying to create scandals, intrigues, corruption cases.

The Kremlin is really aware that it will be able to move a few more strategic steps only on the condition that weapons do not enter Ukraine in the coming weeks/months.

The bet on November as a “resonance point” failed. In November, the outcome of the war will already be decided. Both Washington and London will make sure that changes in the ruling structures take place at a time when “the party has already been won.”

Washington may lose its “democratic majority” at a time when the counter-offensive is in full swing or in its final stages. It will then be almost impossible to change the outcome, especially secretly, in the shadow mode.

At the same time, we are increasingly hearing about the tightening of Old Europe. Including we are talking about the supply of heavy weapons.

In the end, Washington’s strategy worked. Briefly, it sounded like this:
– Give Russia the opportunity to “throw” all the advanced equipment to one front, giving intelligence an opportunity to assess Moscow’s strategic capabilities, and then supply the necessary weapons for the mass annihilation of this military potential.
– If it is impossible to quickly bring Ukraine into “military parity” with Russia, the West puts emphasis on the destruction of infrastructure and warehouses in order to destroy the military potential with “small forces”, turning the “death machines” into a heap of heavy and threatening, but still scrap metal.
– If it was impossible to supply a sufficient amount of weapons for “combat equality”, it was necessary to cunningly “eat” the stocks of the Russian Federation, forcing the Nazis to significantly reduce the number of “combat strikes” in the future, thereby turning all directions of Moscow’s attack into “frontal” ones without a real opportunity to prepare large warehouses.
– Ukraine with a small amount of weapons destroys not equipment, but warehouses, after which it will be supplied with weapons that will attack “new” equipment, which can only shoot with significant interruptions, and “old” equipment that is not able to withstand any Western development.

In fact, Russia was brought into a “noose”, having fully calculated its actions.

She will be forced to rush into the embrasure here and now – with an exhausted army, with broken equipment, but still with a relatively lively rear.
Otherwise, any significant delay will significantly reduce the reserves of the Russian Federation “on the ground”, as a result of which, with a long pause, Russia will generally lose the opportunity to use equipment located in the occupied territory.

So Moscow has this choice:
– within the shortest possible time, prepare a grouping with all the equipment available in stock in order to finally bite off the maximum (unprepared offensive)
– to wait for a pause to prepare the offensive, leaving in the end without warehouses at all (offensive “on the forehead” without reserves – a repetition of February)

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence