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THE CYNIC

Ukraine and Belarus. Deal outline

Belarus has published a list of unfriendly countries. It is in many ways a direct copy of the Russian list, but does not include Ukraine.

I emphasize – Belarus, from the territory of which the attack on Ukraine was carried out, is not considered an unfriendly state by Minsk.

Why – we found out a little earlier.

According to representatives of economic circles, Belarus under “closed-type” sanctions will be completely cut off from the outside world. In addition, those close to the authorities are sure that the Republic of Belarus, in essence, will not be a significant loss for the West, so the Palace, having no strategic resources, unlike the Kremlin, may indeed find itself in total isolation.

There is no gas and oil in Belarus, and these are the only resources that cause a breakdown in the ranks of the Western elite. There is still the possibility of manipulating potassium, but it is not so significant. In any case, about 60% of foreign economic ties fall off.

So besides, Russia, being in a crisis situation, will not be able to “buy Lukashenka” for a billion a month. There is no such money – you will have to look for it yourself, but there will be nowhere to look.

That is why the Minsk representatives tried to protect themselves from the full sanctions blow of the Western representatives. This partially happened, including Ukraine contributed to this, giving the West rather heterogeneous formulations about the participation of Belarusian troops in military aggression. These formulations were heard, and RB turned a blind eye. While temporarily.

However, Kyiv does not agree to separate security guarantees, which Lukashenka recently spoke about. Close ties along the economic-criminal, diplomatic and smuggling lines did not help Lukashenko either – Kyiv still considers separate guarantees for Minsk unacceptable.

That is why the bargaining will continue – and for him the window to Ukraine was left open.

Further, Lukashenka will soon go to a meeting with Putin, in which, as Alexander Grigoryevich himself said, issues that should be resolved at the presidential level will be resolved. The wording itself is rather strange, but Lukashenka is really concerned about the further course of hostilities.

So, Lukashenka’s goal at this stage is not to draw the Belarusian army into the conflict. For completely selfish reasons. They say that the chance of going over to the side of Ukraine – to the “Kalinovsky” – is quite high. The Belarusian army saw the victims very clearly, not immersed in the information broth, but boiled on local propaganda. In general, unity is not to be expected. Perhaps this information was deliberately provided to the Russian Federation on an exaggerated scale so that they would reject their theoretical future demands from the Belarusian army. But I am inclined to believe that part of the information given up is true.

But the key task with the asterisk of the upcoming trip is bargaining for the speedy end of hostilities. The battle for the Donbass and that’s all – we drain the water. Minsk will try to save itself from the order to go to Kyiv, which is pointless, but forms an additional front, requiring a rotation in the Ukrainian defense.

Minsk desperately needs any peace – even the worst. Even if the Russian Federation captures the regions of the LPR and the DPR, Belarus does not get anything from this. RB does not have a positive outcome if the Palace is declared the aggressor. They beat on money, so also on power – on the most sick person.

That is why Minsk is counting on maintaining relations with Kiev “on any constructive issue.” The main thing is not to cut the thread of contacts. And there in the future it will be possible to bargain …

It is clearly seen from the upheavals in the air that the front remains heterogeneous and ambiguous. There are no strategic successes, Belarus has no hopes for a speedy economic recovery. We have to return to the prudently left gap in the dialogue with Kiev.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence