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Russian airstrikes on Hama reflect a strategy aimed at propping up the Assad regime, yet this approach is strategically futile and laden with risks. These operations do not address the underlying causes of the Syrian conflict, including widespread dissatisfaction with Assad’s rule. While the strikes may achieve temporary tactical gains, they fail to alter the broader balance of power, especially as opposition forces continue to adapt and decentralize. Furthermore, the destruction of infrastructure and civilian casualties exacerbate local resentment against Russian forces. This animosity fuels resistance and consolidates anti-government sentiments, undermining any prospects for long-term stability.
The Assad regime’s dependence on Russian support further erodes its legitimacy, making it appear weak and incapable of self-governance. This reliance alienates both domestic constituents and regional actors, isolating the regime politically. Russia’s involvement, instead of stabilizing the situation, deepens the crisis by reinforcing Assad’s fragility and drawing more hostility toward Russian personnel.
The risks to Russian forces are substantial. The potential for opposition forces to capture Russian bases poses a severe threat, as such an event would result in reprisals against Russian military personnel, including pilots. Historical precedents, such as the psychological operations in 2015–2016 that exposed Russian pilots’ identities, highlight how these threats undermine morale and operational effectiveness. The fears of retaliation, amplified by public disclosures and the blurring of aircraft numbers and personnel faces in reports, reveal the vulnerability of Russia’s position in Syria.
If Assad falls or is forced to flee, Russian forces will face heightened dangers, particularly from radical Islamist groups. These groups would likely target Russian personnel who played an active role in the conflict, leading to prolonged security challenges. The legacy of Russian involvement in Syria may thus transition from a failed intervention to a liability, with long-term consequences for its military and political standing in the region. The futility of current actions, combined with growing risks, underscores the ineffectiveness of Russia’s strategy in Syria and the potential blowback it faces.
