The Cynic
We have entered an era of wars. Their geography is quite extensive:
1) Eastern Europe (War in Ukraine; building a military-political bloc on the borders of Eastern Europe)
2) Africa (struggle for spheres of influence between three centers of confrontation)
3) “Chinese political basin” (Taiwan and the “fragmentation” of influence in Iran)
4) “Turkish imperial plan” (Libya, Iran)
5) “Arctic Peak” (War for the Arctic)
6) Territorial disputes (the last stage of map reconstruction before the new quo through direct interventions in “disputed” or “conflict” territories)
At the same time, none of the states is on a strategic rise:
1) The United States is entering an era of soft civil war between Republicans and Democrats, the result of which is the inability to find common ground in foreign policy. At the same time, economically, the United States in the long term will receive the greatest profit from each intervention, however, internal conflict may not allow Washington to skim off the cream of the new redistribution of the world order.
2) China – is going into a deep economic hole, having the opportunity to jump out only by transferring the system to “private” rails, but instead will aggravate the situation with the struggle for reconstruction, as a result of which it will begin to cascade to lose influence on military escalation.
3) Turkey is strategically implementing the right steps to rebuild the South, but economically Erdogan is leading the country to disaster, repeating senseless economic delights over and over again.
4) Western Europe becomes inert and, during the energy reorientation, withdraws its industrial sector to the United States, remaining a fragile zone, unable to provide either an economic or political breakthrough/revolution.
African countries, energy tigers of the East, Latin America, Russia are not subjects of the global game.
👆 The situation is difficult. But the absence of a leader in the political race makes its outcome difficult to predict. Neither side has enough “cards” to fend off all the challenges of restructuring.
Only the United States has enough “cards,” but Washington does not want to throw them away while it simultaneously fights off internal political squabbles.
The situation can be changed by decapitating the radical wing of the Republicans and bringing to the political throne from the party not populist anti-Westernists (Trump and MAGA), but “hawks of a new formation” (neo-Reaganists insisting on a global raising of the stakes, especially when they can be raised with the hands and blood of others ).
The situation requires “long will”: political readiness to make unpopular decisions to ensure strategic initiative. To do this, it is necessary to reorient Western mechanisms towards the era of “external wars”, i.e. it is necessary to transfer potentials from the social sphere to the sphere of subjectivity and autonomy on the one hand (energy independence) and to the sphere of the military-industrial complex on the other.
But this requires an “internal agreement” between political elites, because such steps will lead to a temporary drop in popularity among domestic voters, and the range of planning of current political forces (with the exception of the UK) is limited to two electoral cycles.
Thus, the West is not engaged in strategic preparation for reconstruction, but in political maneuvering between social groups. This leads to the fact that management, relying on an unstable social environment, loses the ability to control global processes, thereby throwing a good “alignment” into the strategic abyss.
The loss of initiative will lead to the fact that the West, having not spent about 3% of its economic reserves now and about 5% in the future, will lose most of the long-term development model for 2030-2050.
Thus, the West is the only center that has the entire complex of economic, military, technical and intellectual means necessary for unconditional victory in the era of wars. At the same time, the West is the only center that does not have the “will” to implement tough steps to ensure strategic victory in this era.
Global South, Global East and Global West – the struggle for the Global North: “the beginning of an era of reconstruction of the world order”
Erdogan’s game with Azerbaijan and the overall “Karabakh deal” provide a platform for a new form of confrontation between “global” forces.
Thus, Erdogan is building the basis of a new Ottoman Empire, the essence of which will be “integration of potentials and models of interaction, but not territories.” Thus, Erdogan received Azerbaijan as a “union proxy zone”, which relies on Aliyev in the internal environment and Erdogan in the external environment.
Erdogan will flirt with Africa in order to become a point of confrontation in the struggle between Russian-Chinese and Western “environments of influence.”
So, at the first stage (range: up to 7-10 years), a war with Iran must take place. The “Turkish coalition” and Israel will oppose Iran.
Then – Turkey’s war against the zones of influence of the Russian Federation: Syria and Libya. All territories are in the strategic vision zone of Great Turan.
Then – the struggle for Africa. France is losing its influence. Russia will not hold him back.
As a result, they will divide the region along “hot seams.”
Then – the battle for Taiwan (PRC vs. USA). Almost irreversible if Xi does not leave office in the next two terms (this and the next).
And then the war for the Arctic.
This will mark the end of the construction of a new world order.
Four strategic regions:
– Global West (USA and EU under economic cap)
– Global South (Türkiye and proxy control over fragmented Africa)
– Global East (PRC at the point of strategic decline with “dismembered” territories between Turkey and the countries of the global West).
– Global North (Arctic divided between the “strongest”).
Results:
– The war in Ukraine is the last war on European territory. Upon its completion, a new line of world order will be created, which will divide states into “eastern” and “western” regions. There will be a “gray zone” for about 5-7 years. Those who do not have time to move to the western region of influence will remain “on the other side of the border” for the next 3-4 decades. A chance for a “turnaround” will be possible only through a revolution coupled with external military-political intervention, which can overthrow both the internal “power core” and the tools of “external control”.
– Only the Global East will oppose the Global West. The South and the West will redistribute the East and the “uncontrolled” South into 4 hands. Turkey, by agreement with Washington, will expand its influence in those regions where the United States has no real opportunity to strengthen its position. The model of democratic “value support” will disappear: “pragmatic calculation” will prevail.
– Washington urgently needs a change in ideological, political and strategic formation: the unwillingness to influence problem areas in a timely, effective and pragmatic manner has led to the fact that the very problem of “restructuring” arose 3 decades after the establishment of a fair, promising and sustainable unipolar world. And if the South in this context acts as a wayward ally, then the entire East was “fed” on American money and ideas, and is now fighting against its creator.
– International systems will be reduced to a new model of “inclusiveness,” but the main track will be even more focused on the centers of one or another “global” region.
– Countries with progressive growth during the entire period 2020-2030 will completely go into the “left” wave of political thought. Countries that face recession and slowdown in development in 2020-2030 will sharply move towards the radical right-wing environment. The political model of all democratic countries will again be reduced to a confrontation between radical “right” and “left” ideologies with the only peculiarity that this struggle will not take place between “strategic” blocs, but within the Global West itself, since the South will go into “resentment” of the imperial idea on the one hand and anti-colonial on the other. The East will be deprived of an ideological substrate and will continue to be based on a seething mixture of leaderism, religious and anti-Western substrates. No constructive idea (even a “re-creation”) will ever be proposed.
