The Cynic
According to sources (from what can be published):
1. The first phase of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is close to its end. Serious successes are characteristic of several sectors of the front: in some the first line of defense (the main one) has been broken through, in some – the Armed Forces of Ukraine have reached the first line of defense and are conducting active combat operations with the “chaotic” (quote) behavior of the enemy.
2. The end of the first phase and the beginning of the second (more active and intensive) are scheduled for the second half of August. At this stage, already in some areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they have switched to the implementation of the second phase of offensive operations.
3. Due to the multiple intensification of combat activity, the number of losses in equipment has slightly increased, while irretrievable losses in manpower remain close to the previous level (Western equipment helps with its armor, which protects soldiers from critical damage “at bayonet fighting distance”).
4. Russia is deploying some troops in the direction of its own offensive operations, exposing the zones where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting offensive operations. This is due to the fact that Moscow realizes that it will not be able to withstand a concentrated onslaught, which is why it hopes that the Ukrainian command will transfer the Armed Forces of Ukraine to contain some of the “breakthroughs” of Russian warriors, which will cause the front to be smeared.
5. The transfer of troops will not occur. Ukraine has already taken control of the main breakthrough lines, while the Russians have an advantage in these areas in artillery and manpower. Nevertheless, the Russian army has no operational successes, and local fluctuations in the front line seem insignificant.
6. The transition from the first phase to the second will be relatively quiet from a global political point of view: we will not see anything significantly new until almost the end of August.
7. The defense lines of the Russian Federation, which follow the first lines, are fortified and equipped much worse than the “front” ones. This greatly simplifies the work of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the context of the low level of controllability of the Russian troops of the subsequent lines of defense.
8. Russia is already depleting reserves, while Ukraine has not committed the main offensive resources to the battle. Those. in the paradigm of temporary distribution, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will probably be able to deplete the available reserves of the RF Armed Forces before it even begins to introduce its own.