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The Cynic

“There will definitely be a second wave of mobilization. We need to mobilize another 500,000 soldiers,” Girkin

We pay attention to the numbers voiced by the “drain tank” Strelkov.

On December 29, we named exactly this figure of 500,000 as a necessity to maintain cryostasis at the front.

Russia needs a mobilization of at least 500,000 people to maintain the situation in “cryostasis” until the end of summer 2023. However, the inability to train and equip the mobilized calls into question the acceptability and effectiveness of such mobilization.

But, however, a number of problems arise in the case of mobilization:

  • There are no people ready to go to war.
  • There are no people ready to train to fight.
  • There are no resources for training.
  • There is no equipment to send to the front.
  • There are no weapons and cartridges to provide for the mobilized population.

In essence, this determines the change in the nature of mobilization. The classic “to the front – for the sake of victory” is being replaced by the classic exclusively for Russia plan of “minced meat under the caterpillars of tanks.”

Let me explain: the goal of mobilization will not be to advance at the front, but to secure territories before another attempt to lobby for negotiations.

It is becoming known that “under the New Year’s chimes” Russian services tried to purchase a number of “Western expert opinions” in order to provide informational and political influence on the departments of short-term and long-term planning of key Western countries.

The emphasis was on military experts and analysts, as well as on “unsightly politicians in black coats.” We will learn about the effectiveness of the operation from the information output.

Also, a negotiating bet was made in the “Latin American regions”, where, according to the Kremlin, “the brothers of the northern Anglo-Saxon wrong Americans” should “play negotiating games” in defiance “of senior comrades in order to reach the negotiation track.” Moreover, Moscow considers the negotiations “an irreversible event that will play into the hands of the Kremlin and those who will organize the negotiations,” as a result of which Russian analysts writing “high-flying notes” suggest that Moscow “choose a negotiating platform” with flattery, trying to play the interests of those who is ready to lobby negotiations at a high level.

Interestingly, both the negotiators themselves and the Kremlin itself are in a parallel reality, in which the West will be inclined to make territorial concessions one way or another.

There is no such understanding of the need for negotiations in any “influential” Western country. On the contrary, Kyiv’s key military and financial arteries insist on the need to end the war on the battlefield on Ukraine’s terms. At the same time, those who initially lobbied for these very negotiations in Europe, France and Germany, moved into a “predatory” position.

It seems that the Russians will negotiate with themselves on Latin American soil.

But Moscow does not notice another important contradiction. Its negotiating position is weakening after the wave of mobilization.

First, mobilization in the Russian plan looks like fixing the occupied territory, but there will be no fixing. The mobilized will “patch holes” on the defensive front, which means that Russia, as it was, will remain on the defensive: only the volume of meat laid will grow by a multiple of each new wave of mobilization.

Secondly, mobilization reduces the effectiveness of the remaining weapons. It is already not enough to wage an expansionist war, so it is also given into the hands of the chmobiks (one installation per battalion), as a result of which heavy weapons are dispersed, but it happens in such a way that the mobilized are left without helmets and machine guns, but with an installation, which they do not know how to use, as a result of which the total mass of weapons is even more stretched along a long front.

Of course, within a few months Russia will be in the same negotiating position as before the mobilization, but then the negotiating weight will continue to fall. This means that mobilization is designed not to increase the power in the negotiations, but to “keep the quo” at a time when work is underway on ineffective lobbying for negotiations.

There is little logic in this. The Kremlin is playing for time, hoping for a miracle. But the “miracle” is in the hands of Ukraine.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence