Recently, there have been many “leaks” that Putin is preparing for another winter attempt to “attack from the north” – from the territory of Belarus. It is also reported that the military of Belarus may take part in the next march to Kyiv.
This is not necessarily impossible, since the objective military situation is of little concern to Putin, therefore, in the event of another defeat on the Eastern or Southern Front, Putin may decide on a psychedelic repetition “in the mirror” on February 24th.
It is worth saying that the symbolism on the anniversary of the war is being actively discussed by the military of the Russian Federation, and they want to give Putin either some kind of significant victory (including your obedient servant heard about the idea of “destroying the monument”, or some kind of symbolic “military procession” with vague prospects.
So far, the attack from Belarus is seen frankly as an information operation, because:
- The Russians do not have enough personnel to keep the defense in the southern and eastern directions. In this case, who should be allowed to go to the north?
- The Russians do not have enough equipment to hold the captured positions.
- Mobilization, of course, makes it possible to form personnel, but they are so poorly trained and poorly staffed that they will choke on the first kilometers of the “northern advance.”
Since the beginning of the war, Belarus itself has sold to Putin almost all the equipment available in warehouses, along the way “cutting off more expensive” clothes. Literally, the military potential of the Republic of Belarus is a completely naked army with equipment unable to move. Moreover, Lukashenka managed to sell even rusty tanks to Putin: the only thing not sold is that which cannot move independently.