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The Cynic

final fracture

The victory of Ukraine in the direction of Kherson is the “fatal turning point of the war”, which fixed the situation discussed earlier:

  • Ukraine demolishes the defense of Russia with remote strikes, losing the minimum number of weapons and personnel
  • Ukraine waits for the “collapse of the supply system” and, accordingly, the catastrophe of the Russians in the field of defense, after which it implements a series of sorties, forcing the Kremlin to flee, not to fight, therefore Ukraine spends 6-12 times less troops in case of offensive actions than this ” supposed” according to military statistics.
  • Russia in such realities, in principle, is not able to go from defense to offensive, but is only able to go from defense to flight.

All these points, to the cries of the Kremlin provocateurs about “cynics lulling the audience,” we painted since the spring, when Ukraine’s tactics became clear and stable.

Now the Kremlin is asking Ukraine for negotiations 6 times a week (according to Peskov).

But let’s think about it:

  • Russia does not have the opportunity to expand its zone of territorial occupation.
  • Russia every day either loses the combat effectiveness of its defense forces, or even loses territory.
  • That is, every new day is a direct blow to the Russian leadership: Russia is in a lagging position (placed cancer, at the same time rehearsing the position of a scuba diver in the “reverie rooms” for general use).
  • Ukraine dictates the agenda of the negotiations, but so far (!) cannot talk about all the occupied territories.
  • Russia understands that the chance to stay in the territories is to beg for a truce and use it as time to prepare for a new war.

In fact, after the liberation of Kherson, the path of military expansion of the Russian Federation was not only stopped, it was defeated. Now we can say unequivocally: Russia has finally lost the war, and now it is trying to alter the terms of its surrender by manipulation and threats.

The terms of surrender are now such that Russia is erasing itself from the political map of the world, becoming a disenfranchised province of China.

At the same time, the positions of the “axis of dictatorships” are clearly weakening: the victory of Ukraine is the way to expand the influence of the United States in Eastern Europe, the return of the influence lost by the shaggy washcloth in Asia, as well as the way to turn the war of dictatorship and authoritarianism towards the former.

So, having liberated Kherson, Ukraine simultaneously struck at Iran, China, North Korea, all direct and indirect allies of the Kremlin and Beijing.

On such a wave, even lovers of talk – France and Germany – report that it is time for Ukraine to “squeeze” Russia.

In fact, now Ukraine is opening a strategic belt of military steps in the Luhansk direction, on the Donetsk bridgehead, towards Mariupol and Melitopol.

By the way, the relatively quick and uniquely technical liberation of Mariupol can cause quite an interesting reaction from those Russian military who “took Mariupol” with terror.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence