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The Cynic

In connection with an emergency “operational pause” at the front, the Russian Federation is trying to transfer the rear to the front line, simultaneously throwing the maximum number of “volunteers” into the front ranks – only the Russian Federation is running out of volunteers.

Quite quietly there was information that Putin supported the initiative to introduce liability for non-participation in a “special military operation” [so – in the project] of contract servicemen.

And this initiative appeared in the Kremlin not by chance. After the end of the war for Lugansk, the “Donetsk direction” remained, which in some military circles is called the “gorge of death.” There are a lot of refusals to go to the front line in Donetsk. An even greater number of failures can be seen in the Kherson direction, where forces are urgently transferred not only from the rear, but also from “quiet” forward (secondary) directions.

However, it is believed that the Kremlin’s resources are currently sufficient for only 1 of 2 actions:
– defense of Kherson
– Donetsk attack

At the same time, the Russian army is not able to attack in the Donetsk direction and defend against the Ukrainian attempt to attack in Kherson – an additional wave of covert mobilization is needed, but the problem with the “500” may make it insufficient for effective work in at least one of 2 directions.

According to sources, the psychological front of the Russian Federation crumbled after the start of active shelling of HIMARS. The lack of effectiveness of the Russian Federation against this system, combined with its high efficiency in destroying warehouses, created an atmosphere of panic and despondency on the front line.

In this regard, cases of desertion, flight, breaking contracts intensified.

Sources say that they do not work for refuseniks:
– economic measures of influence (neither fines nor bonuses)
– information and propaganda methods of influence
– methods of criminal intimidation and blackmail
– methods of forceful psychological and physical influence

So, the situation with “refuseniks” can change only if the Russian Federation is really able to demonstrate serious successes on the battlefield – that is, never.

Without this effect, the “500th” will continue to create a “domino principle” for shy colleagues, as a result of which the “second army of the world” will continue to crumble.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence