Documents obtained by the military intelligence of Ukraine testify to the preparation of the 1st Panzer Army of Russia for the invasion and capture of the territory of Belarus.
After the falsification of the presidential election in Belarus, the Russian Federation developed a plan to invade and suppress popular protests.
The occupation of Belarus was planned under the pretext of avoiding Russia’s involvement “in the European continental region in a regional or large-scale war with NATO member states in the West.”
One of the proofs of Russia’s preparation for military aggression against the neighboring state is “The legend of the plan to regroup units and military units of the 1st Panzer Army in the area of the task.”
Today, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine released information showing the preparation of the 1st Tank Army of Russia for the invasion and seizure of the territory of Belarus.
The 1st TA is the basis on the Russian side of the Regional grouping of troops (forces) of the so-called Union State. From reading the entire document, it follows that there is no talk of an armed invasion of Belarus and its occupation. Invasion and occupation involve at least the neutralization of the troops of the occupied country. And the document also spells out interaction with the Armed Forces of Belarus (in terms of air defense, etc.), building up the RGV (S) under operational cover for joint confrontation with third countries (NATO), etc.
The “document” is most likely created on the basis of some excerpts from the concept of the Caucasus-2020 exercises, perhaps even the West 2021 (parts where lines, units, echelons, etc. are registered) and adding their own information necessary for dissemination.
In the analysis of information, one should not only check its veracity, but, among other things, also study the time of its appearance (and not the appearance), by whom it was provided (and by whom it was not provided and why), and most importantly in a rapidly changing environment – in whose interests it is widespread and how it can be used by the parties to the conflict.
The document touches on the events of September 2020, but it was only made public today. The following events are currently taking place. Russia transferred the main forces to the south-east of Ukraine to destroy the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while significantly withdrawing troops from the south of Belarus (slightly reducing the risk for Ukraine of an attack from the north by Russian troops, which allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to transfer part of the forces and resources to the southeast) . V. Makei sent a letter to the leaders of the EU countries in the context of the sanctions, which contained “Belarus counts on the support of the EU for its sovereignty, independence and resistance to emerging challenges.” There is a growing theme of the need for EU countries and Ukraine to cooperate with Lukashenka in order to distance him from Putin and, thereby, reduce the risk of introducing Belarusian troops into Ukraine, or prevent the re-arrival of Russian troops in Belarus to attack Ukraine during active hostilities in the southeast .
For Ukraine, the goals and possibilities of using the “document” are as follows: reducing support for interaction with the Russian Federation in the Belarusian society. Such a “document” is not capable of helping one iota to separate Putin and Lukashenko.
For Russia: intimidation of the citizens of Belarus, striving for changes in the political system in Belarus (including those in the vertical of power, as the most capable for this at the moment), they say, if there is another government, then Russian troops will come to Belarus.
For Lukashenka: in order to reduce sanctions, maintaining the image of Lukashenka for the EU countries and Ukraine as the only one who is able to resist Russia, moreover, who has “not allowed the occupation” for two years now. Also, the “document” can be used to fuel periodic stuffing that Lukashenka is resisting the pressure of the Belarusian security forces, who, they say, for Russia, want to fight with Ukraine and are hawks in shaping foreign policy (the phrase in the document: “Estimated, this decision will strengthen Lukashenka’s authority among representatives of the country’s law enforcement agencies”). And it will allow promoting a topic that is also convenient for the Russian Federation: if Lukashenka is replaced, then Russian troops will be here.
The interaction of the Belarusian and Russian armed forces within the framework of a single group was built with the active personal participation of Lukashenka for a long time within the framework of the general legislation and the plan for the application of the RGV SG (which Lukashenka approved in December 2020). Since the late 2000s, the military programs of the Union State have been actively developed (they gained new strength in 2017) for the joint development of the military infrastructure of Belarus and the Western Military District of Russia in the interests of the RGV (S). We have been observing the results of these joint programs since February 24, 2022.