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5 kilotons surface burst on Kiev with prevailing wind patterns –

For a 5 kilotons surface burst detonation:

Estimated fatalities: 14200

Estimated Injuries 30090

5 Kilotons Surface Burst with prevailing winds blowing towards Russia

In any given 24-hour period, there are on average 39,947 people in the light (1 psi) blast range of the simulated detonation.

For a 10 kilotons surface burst detonation:

Estimated fatalities: 21490

Estimated Injuries: 43200


Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are deliberately ignored, because they can depend on what actions people take after the detonation.

Effect distances for a 5 kiloton surface burst: ▼

Fireball radius: 150 m (0.07 km²)
Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to damage on the ground depends on the height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Anything inside the fireball is effectively vaporized.

Heavy blast damage radius (20 psi): 370 m (0.44 km²)
At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%. Often used as a benchmark for heavy damage in cities.

Moderate blast damage radius (5 psi): 0.78 km (1.93 km²)
At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. The chances of a fire starting in commercial and residential damage are high, and buildings so damaged are at high risk of spreading fire. Often used as a benchmark for moderate damage in cities.

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 1.03 km (3.36 km²)
Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 8 cal/cm2.

Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.11 km (3.86 km²)
500 rem ionizing radiation dose; likely fatal, in about 1 month; 15% of survivors will eventually die of cancer as a result of exposure.

Light blast damage radius (1 psi): 2.01 km (12.7 km²)
At a around 1 psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who comes to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a benchmark for light damage in cities.


Note: Rounding accounts for any inconsistencies in the above numbers.


Estimated total-dose fallout contours for a 5 kiloton surface burst with a 15 mph wind: ▼

Fallout contour for 1 rads per hour:

  • Maximum downwind cloud distance: 79.3 km
  • Maximum width: 5.77 km
  • Approximate area affected: 564 km²

Fallout contour for 10 rads per hour:

  • Maximum downwind cloud distance: 49 km
  • Maximum width: 3.39 km
  • Approximate area affected: 257 km²

Fallout contour for 100 rads per hour:

  • Maximum downwind cloud distance: 18.6 km
  • Maximum width: 1.01 km
  • Approximate area affected: 64 km²

Fallout contour for 1,000 rads per hour:

  • Maximum downwind cloud (stem only) distance: 2.46 km
  • Maximum stem width: 500 m
  • Approximate area affected: 1.72 km²
  • The selected radiation level is too high for cloud fallout at this yield, and so this contour is not mapped. Maximum radiation contour for cloud fallout that can be mapped for this yield is 267 r/hr.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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