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AN OPINION…

(a) Chinese companies and Chinese officials will NEVER admit that they are helping Russia circumvent any kind of sanctions, particularly when it comes to supplying spare parts for Boeings and Airbuses in Russia.  NEVER. 

Because this recognition will mean sanctions and problems with access to spare parts for the Chinese companies themselves.  Moreover, no one can force the Chinese to fit into this risk for us, especially since they have their own aircraft, which they probably hope to sell to us in the future as well.  Nothing personal just business.  Get used to it.  If they help us to circumvent sanctions (not to develop trade between countries, namely to BYpass specific sanctions), then they will do it quietly, much like China buys Iranian sanctioned oil.

(b) Russian companies (emphasize: this is not about the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance will feed everyone with rubles), such as Gazprom, Rosneft, etc.  probably WILL be as much as it is technically possible, using the funds on the accounts of their foreign subsidiaries, to pay for their Eurobonds to foreign investors. 

They will probably do it all the way.  And not because there “traitors rule!”  (as it seems to some stupid people), but because otherwise arrests of Russian oil and gas in foreign storage facilities will begin, because there will be arrests of shares of Russian companies in foreign joint ventures, including very expensive and necessary ones, including in countries that  do not support sanctions and who buy Russian oil and gas, but where can you implement a court order from the European Union on a corporate default.  Yes, it is possible in response to cut off both oil and gas and switch to a completely besieged fortress regime, but the hysterics themselves will howl from the consequences. 

Channels for the receipt of currency (in general, any) need to be kept open for much longer, and the benefits that come from this are infinitely greater than the payment of Eurobond coupons by some Russian exporters. 

The real world is not tailored to the wishes of people who treat politics and economics with the “competencies” and emotions of a football fan.

(c) Now not only those for whom the conditional Apple Pay is dearer than the life of Russians are being uncovered, but also those who have been squealing all these years that “it was necessary to fight to the end in 2014”.  The first – are uncovered as traitors, the second – as morons.  In 2014, if the current sanctions package had been implemented against us, then excuse me, there would have been stupid problems with food – we didn’t have even close programs for food self-sufficiency implemented, our banking system and the payment system would have gone to hell, we would have been completely ruined for  cogs.
And now it will be very painful, but the economy will survive.  But whining the most will be just those who think that for any problem there is a simple solution-spell (such as “nationalization of the Central Bank” – this is the level of fans of Harry Potter and other porridges who cast “kedavara” on the Kremlin in the hope of winning).  There are no magic “do it all” buttons in this world.  Simply no.

(d) People often ask: why does no one properly explain anything to us?  I explain: those who, in theory, should have explained – are busy with hosting, or hysteria, or cannot explain because they got a job under patronage, or because they solve the problems of “urinating” political competitors or economic competitors of their customers.  That is, the task of explaining something to someone really is either not worth it at all, or it is facing those who cannot be trusted with even two iron balls from a joke.

At the moment, the only adequate (but dry and concise due to the specifics of the work) sources of information are:

Government project – https://t.me/obyasnayemrf
Official website/tg-channel of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: – https://t.me/centralbank_russia

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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