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The Russian model of negotiation always starts with a Loaded Gun point squarely at your head. Followed by accusations of your aggressive behavior as the reason for the gun, and the gun being loaded to ensure you concede any points needed, or the trigger will be pulled.

This is the model they thought of using using with their neighbors, with South Ossetia, Georgia, Donbass, and Crimea. Then the Russians realized that just taking what they wanted was more expedient. Typical playground bully behavior. What they found with Ukraine was a larger foe with some semblance of “My Bodyguard” in play.

Their response is recriminations, accusations, false narratives, and bully foot stomping, leading to more support for Ukraine. The more Russia whines and rattles their sabers, the more support Ukraine receives.

The more disinformation they spread, they more this noise is countered to the point where Russia finds itself on the virtual defensive. Like all bullies, once confronted, they don’t know how to respond. Russia has been taken out of their game plan. One that had backfired to the point where the area will now be reinforced with Western support.

A bully with a bloody nose is one on his way home

Putin overplayed his hand and now is hemorrhaging credibility at home and abroad. The tough guy routine is tired as is his last hurrah at a recovery of Soviet-Era influence. He backed himself into a corner not expecting the EU, NATO, and US response. Ridiculous demands like Russia’s are much like those during for a divorce. Ask for everything, sprinkle this with outrageous requirements and timeframe, and then keep. Moving the needle prior to and during meetings. The heavy handed ‘the state is your daddy’ did not work in the past. This approach is obviously not a model that people in former Soviet-bloc states desire.

Time to take your ball and leave the playground.

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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