Look for pre-emptive #Cyber Ops – Signs of a potential #Russian military operation against #Ukraine

1. Large-scale deployment, mobilization, surprise exercises of units and formations of the 1st, 20th, 8th and 41st armies.

The Security Service of Ukraine accused the special services of the Russian Federation of cyber attacks. “The Ukrainian special service managed to identify the attackers by name, intercept their conversations, and also obtain evidence of their involvement in the attacks. And this despite the fact that they used their FSB virus programs, as well as the means of anonymization and ‘cover’ on the Internet. ” Hackers have carried out over 5 thousand cyberattacks.

2. Mobilization of artillery formations at the regiment and brigade level.

3. Mobilization of the Russian Airborne Forces or parts of the Black Sea Fleet.

4. Mobilization of the DPR and LPR militias.

5. Prolonged or intensified Kremlin information operations claiming that Ukraine is attacking or preparing to attack Donbass.


6. An increase in the number of command posts in the territory of Donbass, as well as in the south or west of Russia near the Russian-Ukrainian border.

7. An increase in the volume of video recordings showing how Russian equipment moves from the west of Russia towards Ukraine.

8. The Kremlin issues a political ultimatum to Kiev or summons Zelenskiy to negotiate with the top leadership.

9. Increased Kremlin information operations claiming NATO is deploying troops to Ukraine or creating “NATO bases” on Ukrainian territory.

Signs indicating that a Russian military operation against Ukraine is less likely:

1. Russian media are weakening or stopping information operations about the offensive of Ukraine.

2. Units and subdivisions of the Russian Armed Forces located in the west and south of the country are redeployed to the east of Ukraine.

In general, American analysts believe that the redeployment and activity of units and subunits of the 1st and 41st armies of the Russian Armed Forces at the end of October are unlikely to be preparations for an attack on Ukraine, but create long-term problems for neighboring countries and NATO.

# Ukraine # Russia # NATO