The Tsar’s Gambit and China’s Chains exposes the core paradox of Russia’s war on Ukraine—its bid for imperial revival has transformed into a self-destructive spiral that undermines its military capacity, crushes its economy, and fractures its social contract.
Attrition defines Russia’s battlefield logic, not victory. Unmanned systems, drone swarms, and fortified trench networks dominate a technological arms race that resembles trench warfare more than precision conflict.
Russia’s economy staggers under inflation, labor shortages, and an unsustainable war-fueled model that hides decay under the illusion of stability.
Moscow’s strategy now hinges on the war’s continuation to avoid collapse. Internally brittle and externally isolated, the Kremlin has lashed itself to Beijing, whose calculated support masks deep mistrust and geopolitical asymmetry.
Meanwhile, a resurgent Global South, led by India, undermines Western sanctions through pragmatic economic ties.
The report dissects the tactical stagnation, strategic dependency, and authoritarian regression shaping Russia’s trajectory.
The document presents four detailed scenarios for the regime’s future—from hardened proxy to internal collapse—while outlining the geopolitical pressures that will shape outcomes in the next 12 months.
No policy can ignore the explosive potential of Russia’s internal stress points or the fragility of its external lifelines.
Read the brief — The Tsar’s Gambit
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