The Russian Ministry of Defense has outlined a long-term forecast up to 2045 that envisions the elimination of Ukraine as a sovereign state and the division of its territory into three distinct regions.
First, there’s the segment called the “New Regions of Russia.” This includes areas like Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea, and Sevastopol. Essentially, these territories are already the focus of Russia’s current military efforts, with the intention of fully integrating them into the Russian Federation.
Then we have the concept of a “Pro-Russian State Formation.” This part includes central and eastern Ukraine, encompassing regions such as Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and others. The idea here is to establish a government that aligns with Russian interests, rejects ties to Europe and NATO, and accepts a permanent Russian military presence, similar to what we’ve seen in places like Transnistria or South Ossetia.
Finally, the “Disputed Territories” encompass Ukraine’s western regions, including areas like Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zakarpattia. According to the document, the fate of these territories would depend on negotiations between Russia and neighboring countries, such as Hungary, Poland, and Romania.
The framework shows a calculated strategy by Russia to reshape Ukraine’s borders and geopolitical alignment, involving both direct control and negotiated influence over key regions. The document reflects a highly ambitious and aggressive vision for Ukraine’s future, grounded in military dominance and regional influence.
