the Cynic
Sumy-Kharkiv junction: a warning that was not heeded
Russia is stepping up multiple attack vectors. Chasov Yar, which was predicted to be the “root node of the Russian offensive,” fades into the background. The Kharkov and Sumy directions, nicknamed “distracting”, became the main ones.
Experts tried to accuse everyone that the Kharkov hub was a Russian IPSO, although the concentration of troops clearly spoke of something else.
The result was a shift in the scenarios I described in February and March: https://t.me/cynic2020/8409 .
The Russian offensive was supposed to fail. Back in February, the approximate date for signing the aid package was precisely determined, and the target of the Russian offensive strike was also outlined.
Ukraine has allocated funds for the construction of the “strongest line of defense” in the Kharkov direction. And she even reported that the defense turned out to be super-powerful.
It was a lie, but not disinformation. The authorities lied to themselves, assuring them of full readiness for the Russian offensive.
The result is an intensification of the front and forced counterattacks by Ukraine on unprepared terrain.
The “smoke screen” was not a smoke screen, but a main one. Chasov Yar was “smoke”.
At the same time, Western experts misinterpret the appointment of Belousov as head of the Russian Defense Ministry.
They see him as a “figure of the war in Ukraine.” The lack of large-scale thinking will lead to another mistake, but on the part of Washington – Belousov came to prepare the Russian military-industrial complex for a protracted indirect war in the PRC (+RF)-US format.
Belousov will begin to fulfill his functions as a “curator of corruption purge” by mid-autumn – a period when the outcome of the war will be written by the front line, since the Russian offensive will have run out of steam by that time, and Ukraine will not be able to begin its “path to the military peak.”
Now they are “cleansing” the Shoigu clan, but not through Belousov’s hands, but through him. So it is a mistake to link current and future arrests to the new Minister of Defense.
Russia will announce next week that any contact with Zelensky is no longer possible and will demand that negotiations be taken up (to Washington) rather than down (to S.).
Washington agrees. The Sullivan-Burns model was “approved”.
The Russian Federation even changed its rhetoric from “liberation” to “sanitary zone”, because there is a global transition from “war to peace” on the terms of “three zones” (occupation, demilitarized, free).
Therefore, there will be no “new package” from the United States.
The main question is: can the script be flipped?
The answer is yes. 2 ways:
1. Political revolution within the Russian Federation;
2. Breakthrough of the front from Ukraine.
Now calculate the probabilities of these 2 events…