The Institute of Conflictology and Analysis of Russia (ICAR ) conducted a monthly sociological survey within the framework of monitoring Russian society called “Mirror of Russia”.
From January 10 to January 26, 2023, the second wave of the study was conducted on an all-Russian sample. The survey method is CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview), namely a telephone survey based on an interactive structured questionnaire using special software for sociological surveys.
A total of 1,600 respondents were interviewed.
The main results of the second wave of the survey:
- 1. In Russia, the number of those who have relatives or acquaintances from among those drafted into the war against Ukraine has increased: compared to the beginning of December 2022 (60%), their share has increased to 69%. As a result, the number of Russians whose relatives and/or acquaintances have already died since the beginning of “SVO” has increased – from 29% in December to 36% in January.
- 2. Therefore, the main event of 2022 for Russians (72%) is the “special military operation against Ukraine” and it is the main problem facing them (47%) .
- 3. If in December 2022, the majority of Russians called it the right step to carry out partial mobilization in the fall, then in January 2023, this majority (60%) has a negative attitude to the possible announcement of a second wave of partial mobilization. That is why the respondents mostly support the increase of the Russian army to 1.5 million people, the involvement of prisoners, as well as the army of Belarus, in combat operations against Ukraine .
- 4. Three quarters of Russian citizens are sure that they know the goals of the “special military operation”. However, none of the goals receives the majority of votes – the denazification of Ukraine and the confrontation with the West (19%) are named comparatively most often (39%). Other goals receive less than 10% of the vote.
- 5. Under certain conditions, the majority of Russian citizens would support Russia’s “special military operation” against Kazakhstan or the Baltic states. 26% and 34%, respectively, believe that the conditions for conducting military operations against these states are already present .
- 6. Russian citizens believe that the “SVO” against Ukraine practically did not achieve its goal, but almost three quarters would support its end tomorrow. An important change compared to the December survey is a sharp decrease in support for an indefinite “SVO” – from 48% to 12% – and a simultaneous increase in those who are undecided – from 15% to 32% .
- 7. Almost three quarters of Russians (70%) do not know who they would have voted for if Vladimir Putin had not participated in the presidential elections .
- The rest of the applicants are currently gaining no more than 5-6% of the vote.
- The statistical error with a probability of 0.95 does not exceed 2.5%.
