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The Cynic

Yesterday was a turning point in the new stage of the war, say colleagues from Washington and London.

The United States is abandoning the doctrine of restrained confrontation with Russia. The reason is that during the period of the war, the special services managed to draw conclusions “about the strategic worthlessness of the Russian armed forces, as well as the command.” The old “doctrine of restrained counteraction” involved a gradual increase in Ukraine’s firepower without real instigation from the Kremlin. Now this stop factor has been reduced to zero: intelligence suggests that the chance of a nuclear strike is not enough to worry about, so Ukraine will be supplied with more lethal and long-range weapons that it needs in the context of time and training of soldiers.

Liz Truss, who took over the UK, is also a supporter of the maximum removal from conventional points of interaction. Her main geopolitical task during her reign is to achieve the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine, ceasing to focus on possible risks of escalation. Well, she has a noticeable hawkish position on China, but we’ll talk about that later.

The concept is as follows: the parties will maneuver in an escalation case exclusively in the diplomatic and political plane (status of a “terrorist”), removing the barriers from military supplies, along the way demonstrating concessions precisely in the field of secondary cases (again, “status of a terrorist”).

In response, the Kremlin decided to go “all the money.” The Kremlin has no chance of winning the war against Ukraine. Zero point zero percent.

The rate is a complete shutdown of gas supplies for the autumn and winter period for Western states. The goal is the urgent launch of the “energy revolutions” plan:

“Energy Revolutions” Autumn has begun, which means the Kremlin’s plan for “energy revolutions” is on. The Czech Republic is on fire today. Formed through lobby groups, the concept of Euroscepticism, anti-Americanism and pro-Soviet idiocy found a trigger in the increase in prices for gas, fuel and related products. The Kremlin has openly supported any populist movements in Western countries for 20 years, which it will now try to take advantage of. Moscow will launch a system of cardinal cleansing of the European system. The goal is to bring to power the largest number of populists through a change of governments, simultaneously starting an era of political crisis in the fall-winter throughout the EU, so that European aid to Ukraine will decrease. The scheme in Great Britain failed miserably in Moscow. Through the lobby, it was possible to set fire to internal discontent around Johnson, but the leader of the race is the magnificent Truss, who is a hawk even tougher and more uncompromising than Boris. The Kremlin also hopes for a serious hitch in the United States after the November elections. However, even the arrival of the Republicans will not significantly change the volume of assistance. The only traitor – Trump and the MAGA group – is a risk for Ukraine, but the number of such “cadres” in the United States is insignificant, which means military supplies will not weaken. It is said that attempts to start a “eurosceptic uprising” will be carried out in all countries affected by the price crisis. In fact, populists will not have much support. Given even a very protest-friendly environment, there is no grand domino risk: a turnout of 70,000 is not enough to break the system, but enough to create an era of temporary turbulence for the difficult period of autumn and winter. Of course, if there are not those inside the system who are ready to give up in advance before the crowd gathered by rashist populists. And frankly, when the West emerges from winter, Putin will have no leverage at all. This “funnel” of time will already be sufficient to diversify sources of natural resources, so the plan to “break the EU” will fail, but only if the current rallies are suppressed in a mild (acceptable) form, and their organizers are detained and checked by counterintelligence: in any form.

The task is to cause turbulence in the Western social environment through gas blackmail, so that through the population, provoked by lobby groups and useful idiots, to put pressure on the government in order to restore official and unofficial contacts with Moscow.

The calculation of gas blackmail seems rather strange, since the main weapons assistants of Ukraine are not in the zone of gas dependence, namely, the military conflict will be resolved through military, not diplomatic means.

In turn, Western states have filled storage facilities by 80% on average, which, taking into account average temperatures during the cold period, will be enough for the end of October, November, December and most of January.

With the current intensity of filling gas storages, there will be enough gas for the whole winter and the cold spring period.

As part of the current deliveries, it will be necessary to reduce industrial production by several percent and lower the temperature in residential premises by 2-3 degrees in cold weather.

There will be no significant changes in the world economy due to a complete shutdown of gas: Europe will enter a recession, which will end simultaneously with the adaptation of alternative supply routes: a period of 2 years or more.

Also, each new gas blackmail has less and less radical impact on the price of energy resources. The jumps are noticeable, but the previous buildup several times a day will not happen.

The consequence of the zeroing of gas guarantees will be the end of Russia’s energy influence. Alternative sources will make it possible to permanently remove the Russian Federation from Western markets, while Eastern ones will not provide the Kremlin with either the proper level of income or the proper demand.

Europe just needs to deal with the protests by pinpoint opening the network of agents and blocking the points of unification of pro-Russian protest assets.

So the all-in bet was placed late. On the river, they put all the chips on the line, after demonstrating a weak combination, only nerds. The Kremlin could go for such blackmail in February, immediately after the first wave of sanctions, using the “blind zone” of the preflop and flop, which is beneficial for all-in. Then the effect of “complete shutdown of gas” and “complete shutdown of oil” would be shocking, many would have to fold their hand, fearing a killer combination. But this did not happen, the Kremlin missed its chance for successful blackmail 6 months ago.

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence