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The Cynic

So:
– Interest in the military theme continues to fall. The most rapid negative growth is noticeable among young people. He, according to closed reports, is about 5 percentage points weekly since the beginning of the summer. At the same time, which is especially interesting, the anti-war position clearly dominates among the younger generation. Supporters of the war among young people are less than 20%. At the same time, they are geographically located in rather depressed regions, on the outskirts of civilization, often without access to the Internet and without prospects for the future.

Among the representatives of the “middle age” those interested in the war are also becoming significantly less. The fall is less steep: 2-3 percentage points weekly.

At the same time, in both groups, one can see a shift exclusively from the pro-war position, but the anti-war plane falls in percentage terms much more slowly. However, the general trend of “everyday reality” is dominant on the current agenda.

The highest percentage of interest with practically static indicators of support is in the camp of “Putin’s age.” More than 75% of supporters of the war in this range. And again, social status is clearly visible as a factor of political certainty. The higher the level of wealth, the lower the level of support for the war. The more depressed the region is used in the analysis of data, the more supporters of “war to the bitter end” can be identified in it.

– For the Kremlin, the situation in the “Russian capitals” – Moscow and St. Petersburg – looks rather dangerous. In both cities, the number of opponents of the war exceeded the number of its supporters.

– The mass of social problems leads to the predicted explosive growth of the left movement. The popularity of the leftist idea (“dispossession” of the rich stratum) has doubled since the start of hostilities. Moreover, it is interesting that in the period from February 24 to the end of March, the leftist idea sank to a large extent – almost three times, since the entire agenda was supplanted by victorious reports. Now the degree of support for it is twice as high as the pre-war reality (an increase of 6 times since March), which indicates social discontent.

– Behind-the-scenes “prisoner exchanges” are still not at the forefront of public attention. In principle, the remark “We are saving our own” is enough to remove any questions about the exchange of “Azov” or any other representatives of “nationalist” circles. In fact, the “denazification” agenda has not stood the test of time – the Russians are ready to justify the war with it, but they fully accept any exchanges without any special questions and outbursts of discontent. In this regard, the terms denazification and demilitarization were removed from the propaganda media – now they are completely replaced by the streamlined phrase “everything is going according to plan.”

Let’s move on to the House of Cards. I have repeatedly reported that Russia can declare absolutely any event as victorious for the domestic consumer, after which there will be no questions among the supporters of the war.

However, the Kremlin shot itself in the head. After the daily bombings of warehouses with HIMARS, the Russians began to publish information about the hits in a rather vulgar way. Fertilizers explode, then humanitarian aid, but the fact remains – in the propaganda environment, the catastrophic damage from HIMARS was not hidden for reasons that are incomprehensible to me.

Also, data on the “successful operation of air defense” are constantly published, after which information about the “detonation of fertilizers” is published a few minutes later. And so day after day.

The names of the “heroes” who initiated such an information policy are not yet known, but as a result, the level of trust in the state media as sources of information fell by 10 percent over the week. Against this background, the level of trust in the replicas of government officials fell by 8%.

From the point of view of the information blockade, this is the first major internal Russian information failure since the beginning of the war.

In this regard, propaganda was forbidden to give too optimistic forecasts with clarifications. Only streamlined wording is allowed without dates, localities and numbers.

About Post Author

Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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By Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence