Yesterday we drew attention to the correctness of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the evacuation from Lysichansk, although this allowed Russia to temporarily take full control over one of the separatist quasi-republics.
But it is much more important to understand what will happen in the future at the front.
As we reported, the Russian Federation in the “Lugansk” direction ran into buildings and is now trying to take the Bakhmut-Seversk highway.
The problem for the Russians is in Soledar – there is no way to “unclench” the jaws.
But – and this is the key – our analytical conclusion had to be recognized by the Russian leadership – “Locust” failed: the level of losses for Russia is unbearable for a further offensive on the only mobile front.
Putin: the units that took part in the liberation of the LPR should rest, increase their combat capabilities
Let’s figure out what this really means. The only successful line of attack, in which absolutely all resources and forces were invested from all directions, which caused flight from a number of settlements along the rest of the front, fell into decay.
This line of attack no longer has the human and technical resources for further advancement, which we predicted when Russian expansion intensified in May-June.
In the future, this regrouping will also mean the trajectory predicted by us for the transformation of the war into a trench-passive war – the “shark” has its jaws cramped. Until she can open them.
The transition from attack to defense, in the absence of the ability to constantly replenish reserves, will mean a further transition from defense to flight.
At the same time, Russia, having reached the maximum point in the only successful direction, will have to untie its hands in “adjacent” directions in order to maintain the intensity of the fighting. First of all, Kherson will probably be activated, but the troops were withdrawn from Kherson in order to “keep” the course to advance in the LPR. These transfers caused a situational advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, now Russia is admitting that it has nothing to attack with, which means that with the reverse rotation of troops – towards Kherson from the “Lysychansky loop” – there will be nothing to keep the LPR under military control.
Moreover, in this positional war, Ukraine will have an advantage in logistics and infrastructure in the future. In a few days, thanks to the supplied long-range weapons, Kyiv blows up the largest Russian weapons depots located in a very distant rear.
This means that in the future Russia will only have the opportunity to attack with long-range weapons from the rear (and Russian artillery is inferior in range to Western ones).
To protect against missiles, Ukraine will soon be presented with a system that is on the defense of the White House. This will significantly increase the level of security of Ukrainian forces.
We end up with the following position:
– Russia “with a proud look” passes from the attack phase to the defense phase in the only successful direction.
– The transition to protection indicates significant human and technical losses.
– In the future, Russia will have to activate the “Donbass” and Kherson groupings, however, troops were withdrawn from here to succeed in the LPR.
– The crisis of the professional composition will be expressed in the weakening of the protection of the LPR or lead to further significant losses in all areas.
– Thus, Russia will be forced to throw all its resources into taking adjacent directions, thereby weakening the “Luhansk” grouping, which will probably cause a breakthrough in defense by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
– Delaying the “fixation” without the ability to provide infrastructure for the security of the rear will lead to lengthy trench battles in the “Luhansk” direction, but then the relatively stable “Donbass” and “Kherson” routes will soon begin to crumble, then all the others.
– The intensification of the supply of long-range systems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will bring the Russian rear into complete disrepair, which will make it impossible for the Russians to hold territories while maintaining the ability to attack in any of the directions. Then Russia will go on the defensive on all fronts and completely lose the opportunity to advance. And then you have to retreat quickly.
The military reports that the mass liquidation of Russian warehouses by long-range systems can significantly change the course of the confrontation, in fact, preventing the fascist army from accumulating enough forces for a new breakthrough. In addition, the gradual and methodical destruction of warehouses in the long term makes long-term defense impossible, therefore, in a war of attrition, the two sides will have parity, which, however, will be complicated by the fall of the Ukrainian economy, which is a direct result of the “war on one’s own territory.”
Nevertheless, the amount of Western support, financially and militarily, would in principle make a war of attrition painful but possible to win.
But the height of propaganda madness is the message that Russia destroyed 3 warehouses in the DPR.
The game is phenomenal – in fact, Russia announced that it had bombed its own warehouses so as not to talk about the pinpoint professional work of Ukrainians.