1) Is Kiriyenko the successor?
Rumors about Kiriyenko’s increased influence have forced the system to bite the heel of the likely future master of the Kremlin. The question is not in reality or in the unreality of the successor of the “apparatchik”: the system is accustomed to fight within itself. Kiriyenko is a rather shady representative who is not in the orbit of the interests of the main opposing power structures.
Kiriyenko’s speech, leaked through Izvestia, is most likely genuine material, and not a fake, and by no means a trick of hackers from far abroad. Since Kiriyenko has become the target of a behind-the-scenes game for future power, the beneficiaries of the scandalous treatment should be sought in the Kremlin itself.
We had a message with the following message: “You will starve, but we will annex the territories.” Moreover, for Kiriyenko this is an acceptable model, but for those who leaked the text, it is not.
The logic is as follows: the people are of no interest to anyone, therefore we cross out this political scientific support. Money as an instrument of elite influence is not of interest to the “old” clan of security officials, who generally support the imperial idea even in conditions of impoverishment of the state (they will have enough for “tsatski”, and the people will be pushed under the plinth so as not to get excited), but rather a young clan of technocrats . It was the representative of this clan – Mr. Mishustin – who seemed to be the most likely successor to Putin as a factor in the “balance” between the militant security forces and the peaceful oligarchs.
If we have in mind such a layout, then we see an intensification of the struggle for the future throne: and Kiriyenko is probably an obvious “smoke screen” into which the first “tomatoes” will fly, while the prepared successor will remain safe from media and behind-the-scenes showdowns. And the quietest among the “high elite” in our country is Mishustin as an ideal projection of the “young Putin” at the beginning of the 2000s.
2) Hawk Medvedev broke down.
Medvedev, after a rather scandalous message about the need to exterminate Ukrainians, and at the same time also all representatives of the West, returned after Russia Day, either sobered up or better – he spoke from the position “we will have to negotiate” on a unique “icy” heritage.
The Arctic issue is interesting in that it instantly moves Medvedev from the category of “hawks” to the category of “mouthpieces of the economic bloc.” The siloviki are not interested in the economy: Medvedev, trying to stay at the top of power, “forgotten by everyone”, made a mistake in February, choosing the side of the “hawks”.
Now – after a short lull – he is returning to the game on the side of the Sislibs and the Yeltsin family (before that, the “environmental issue” was decided by my “darlingly beloved” Chubais), as if diverting past remarks into the water.
In addition, it is important for us to identify the second pillar – the “environmental discussion on the Arctic” is not only vital for representatives of the economic elite of the Kremlin – it is a backbone problem for Joe Biden, who loves “climate summits”.
So Medvedev surprisingly returned not only on the crest of the sislibs, but also on the “Western agenda”, and not from the position of “hanging everyone”, but from the position of “Stop bending spoons – we will have to negotiate.”
It is too early to draw far-reaching conclusions, but such a sharp rebound rather speaks of a changed situation in the clan corridors – and Medvedev, “who knows how to keep us downwind”, is trying to fit into the economic bloc, playing, just in case, on 2 fields at the same time – just to be sure “left” after Putin.
3) Rogozin “finally solves the Ukrainian question.”
But who you should not pay any attention to is the populist Rogozin in his trampoline-space role. He plays on the side of the power bloc, and either on purpose or by accident, as one of the interlocutors from the “exiled elite” put it, “he shits in all places where he has time to penetrate, and then he leads everyone to his own shit and proudly broadcasts about that he piled a bunch here.”
If the rest of the towers have more or less realized that the Kremlin will not survive in isolation, then Rogozin, “not responsible for anything and not managing anything,” creates the appearance of noise, which frightens representatives of the Western world who are relatively indifferent to political games.