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The Cynic

Kocheryzhka and Lukashenka. Maneuverability without maneuvers

Today Oleksandr Grigoryevich said quite an interesting phrase: “Ukrainian military will decapitate anyone. Nazis, not Nazis – this is a philosophical question. Ukrainian military will decapitate anyone. Especially Nazis.”

As I told you, the Palace in the war in Ukraine, after the complete failure of the first phase in the first weeks, “hidden” – initially it really believed in the possibility of taking Kyiv in a few days, and then began to receive (and, most importantly, demand) “realistic reports from front.”

Since then, Lukashenka’s bet has been on Kyiv’s victory.

During a recent visit to the Kremlin, Lukashenka, according to the information received, was forced to activate the “second front” in the capital and / or Volyn direction.

Since then, Lukashenka began to stubbornly pretend to be active, realizing the particular risk of a suicidal mission to try to attack Ukraine.

I explain: the mining of the territory is a protective measure “against an attack.” It is impossible to walk through the “minefields” on your own. So even in the event of an order from Moscow, Lukashenka will clear the territory for a month … And then he will draw a new map and mine it again … And so on until the victory of Kyiv.

Today, in the remark described above, he confirmed that he does not consider it possible to defeat the Ukrainian defenders. He repeats this twice already. For the first time, he reported that “it is impossible to defeat a people who fight on their land and for their land.” And he’s right.

In addition, Volfovich, who immediately became more active after Lukashenka’s departure to the Russian Federation (and he is a pure “voice of the Kremlin stump”), immediately after the return of Alexander Grigoryevich, was again “pushed aside” for unheard-of amateur performance.

They say that while Lukashenka is relatively in control of the situation with orders for the power bloc (and after the withdrawal of Russian equipment from the territory of Belarus, the “regime” significantly increased its control), Minsk will not invade Ukraine under any circumstances.

The Kremlin’s “Supreme Commander” and “Minister of Foreign Affairs” have lately begun to threaten to “bomb the decision-making centers” out of helplessness. Before that, they threatened to bomb Washington and London with a nuclear bomb … Plans are shifting.

And then the Russian ambassador to the UK said that the Kremlin’s threats were groundless: there could be no nuclear strike – this confirmed the words of American intelligence.

Thus, even ultimatum threats slowly move backwards against the wall. Putin’s favorite image – a cornered rat – is beginning to emerge more and more clearly.

Carry a flamethrower – don’t let her escape.

In parallel with this, “the closest friend” – Lukashenko – continues to implement the “Purge” project in a secret format, removing from business persons directly connected with the Kremlin. Everyone who had close relations with the Towers at some stage is now at risk, since for Lukashenka loyalty is only personal, and the peculiarity of the current relationship with the Kremlin is a juicy detail: for Lukashenka, Moscow has remained the only enemy that can remove the Palace from country governance.

The previous policy does not make it possible to openly go into conflict with Putin (and the West will not defend Minsk in the current situation – there will not be enough “plugs” for so many holes in the political circuit), but the basis of power – bayonets – must be “bled from the Kremlin’s proteges “.

At the same time, the turn cannot be shown in the media, since the West is not ready to provide guarantees to the regime, and “liberalization” will lead to a new wave of protest movement, which in the current situation has a chance of ending with the victory of democratic forces. However, internal chaos is likely to provoke Moscow to attack Belarus, so Minsk needs to simultaneously “burn out civil society from pro-Western ideology” and “devour the Kremlin cadres in the highest power echelons of power.”

Lukashenka’s hope is quite interesting – he is waiting for a “long dive under water”, because he believes that he will be the winner in the gun carriage race, which will help him maintain full control over power in Belarus and outwit his “neighbor in the trench”.

An interesting ally from Minsk – the Palace is waiting for the death of the stalk.

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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