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Dvornikov, who will lead the armed forces in the southern and eastern arc, is widely known to Western services in Syria. The “Syrian Butcher” is known to the West as a “cruel, cold-blooded, pragmatic, wayward, but rather prudent military strategist” who, unlike “high-profile civilian generals who put on a ton of scrap metal,” “can compensate for the strategic failure of the attack on Kyiv” .

From this characteristic, only a detail about the strategy is important, which is likely to change along the eastern and southern course of attack.

West expects:


1) active use of recruitment as a method of internal conflict base in the territory of military operations.
2) the use of “mass bombing” tactics to clear the territory “meter by meter”
3) attempts to introduce sabotage groups into volunteer detachments
4) an active disinformation party to “destroy the delivered military equipment” as part of the demoralization of the Ukrainian resistance.
5) a diplomatic-ultimatum game with representatives of the local authorities of the south and east.
6) greater emphasis on air superiority, resulting in more destruction.

“Everything indicates that we will soon enter the second stage of this war, which is very bloody. We are entering the second stage, more complex, different in character from the first stage, on a much wider territory, both in the east, in the Donbass, and in the south, towards Crimea and Mariupol,” said NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana.

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Treadstone 71

@Treadstone71LLC Cyber intelligence, counterintelligence, Influence Operations, Cyber Operations, OSINT, Clandestine Cyber HUMINT, cyber intel and OSINT training and analysis, cyber psyops, strategic intelligence, Open-Source Intelligence collection, analytic writing, structured analytic techniques, Target Adversary Research, cyber counterintelligence, strategic intelligence analysis, estimative intelligence, forecasting intelligence, warning intelligence, threat intelligence
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